Latest @MRCza and @UCT_news report on excess deaths in South Africa released, covering the week to 4Dec21. 276 000 excess natural deaths since 3May20. 191k in 2021. Report here: samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
There is no clear signal yet of W4 mortality yet in the provinces and metros with the highest numbers of cases to date.
Measured by the p-score, excess natural deaths increased slightly to 25% this week (just over 2000 deaths), highest in Eastern Cape (46%), lowest in Northern Cape (9.4%).
(and for the n-th week, in the absence of restrictions on the sale of alcohol, unnatural deaths stick to the estimated levels)
On the testing side, proportions testing positive - as shown in the @nicd_sa report for the same week to 4Dec21(nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…) have increased sharply.
That said, there are some cautiously optimistic signs that we may be nearing the peak in Gauteng.
The age patterns of infections continue the existing trends, heavily weighted to adolescents and young adults. The spread, by age, and time, and province, is clear.
While this looks horrendous,a possible indicator of a turn for the better can be found by squinting hard at the final data points - by day and rolling average - in this figure.
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