Thread by @focaldataHQ

We ran a snap poll for @TimesRadio overnight. The findings are pretty damning for Boris Johnson.

Full thread below - all charts screen-grabbed from our data collection platform.

First up, vote intention:

CON: 33%
LAB: 41%
LD: 7%
GRN: 6%
SNP: 5%
PC: 1%
OTHER: 1%

Conservatives down 4 points vs. an internal poll we ran exactly one week ago (2-3 Dec)

Staggering stuff.

The comparison of Johnson's approval ratings vs. Starmer's also mark a step-change compared to what has been seen up to this point.

Johnson
Disapprove: 62%
Approve: 22%

Starmer
Disapprove: 38%
Approve: 26%

Johnson and Starmer now neck-and-neck wrt who people think would make the best PM. Would be interested to know which way that big chunk of Don't Know would split if forced to choose (but we're MRS and BPC members, so wouldn't dream of doing such a thing).

The public's opinion of Johnson is collapsing. Three-quarters say that their opinion of the PM has worsened over the past few weeks...

...and half say they are less likely to vote Conservative than they were a few weeks ago. If you thought that was bad, four in ten 2019 CONSERVATIVE voters also say they are now less likely to vote for the party (2nd chart)

In a similar vein, four in ten Conservative voters from 2019 now say that the current government is not fit for office. Among the wider public, the figure is six in ten.

Let's be clear, these are mind-blowing numbers.

It's the story about government staff parties that seems to be killing Johnson. The issue has had huge cut-through (only 4% have heard nothing about it), and it really matters to people.

Just to top it off, six in ten think that Johnson should resign if it is proven to be true that there were government staff parties that broke COVID rules.

We've not seen a poll this damning for a long, long time. Our sense is that the starkness of the findings reflects the immediate public anger felt in response to the parties story, and views may settle down once the story does...

BUT it is starting to feel that we're getting to the point where the Johnson government can't keep absorbing damaging revelations with little electoral impact. The point of reaching critical mass - it seems - is getting close.

For the details:
- Fieldwork 9 Dec
- GB nat rep, n=1,001 sample

Data to follow.

You can listen to our CEO @JustinIbbett unpacking the findings on Times Radio. Scroll to about 1 hour 9 minutes to hear the big man.
thetimes.co.uk/radio/show/202…