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10 December Gauteng #Omicron update:
There is a drop in the 7 day average case levels. This is 3 days before the peak range expected.
Gauteng is experiencing a mild wave with significantly lower deaths compared to Delta.
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The peak in hospital beds will lag case levels.
With an earlier peak in cases, an earlier peak in hospital numbers can also be expected.
It is now clear that hospital beds will not get close to Delta levels.
(data source: NICD)
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As we look at more severe outcomes, the difference is even larger.
Keep in mind that SA only has light restrictions.
Clearly no restrictions are needed to protect the hospitals in any way.
(data source: NICD)
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Ventilated beds are only a fraction of Delta levels.
Only 3-4% of hospital admissions end up on ventilators. This is significantly lower compared to all previous variants: Delta, Beta and the wild type.
(data source: NICD)
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Gauteng projections: 7 day average cases peaked 3 days earlier than expected.
ICU and ventilated beds are mostly tracking the projected line.
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Either immunity is working very well, or #Omicron is extremely mild. Either way the rest of the world has nothing to fear.
The only concern would be if SA has a type of immunity that the rest does not have. I will leave it to you to speculate if this is possible?
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