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Gauteng #Omicron update - 12 December.
The 7 day avg cases increased above the previous highest level of 9,645 on 9 December to 10,131 today.
This is most likely the result of a reporting delay (16,716 today).
The peak is now likely to end up in the window specified.
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I work with cases by reported date. In this table by Louis Rossouw, cases are given by specimen date, but we will have to wait a day or two to see how the 16k cases from today are allocated.
Either way, growth if any is extremely slow currently.
unsupervised.online/static/covid-1…
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The increases in hospital variables were negligible today, but this is most likely the typical weekend effect.
data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…
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The most contentious issue regarding my tweets remain my assertion that #Omicron is extremely mild compared to Delta.
My most compelling argument is that Delta is still running at a CFR of 3% in South Africa, while Omicron is running at ~0.42% at the same time.
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The unexpected early dropoff in cases below my projections might be the result of reporting delays.
All other variables are tracking my projections reasonably well.
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A major fear in Europe seems to be the expectation that #Omicron will infect up to 70% of the population.
#Omicron will infect only 15-25% in South Africa, and we only have light restrictions (a curfew from 12-4am).
Restriction details:
gov.za/covid-19/about…
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All variants and all waves in almost all countries reach saturation at well below 30% infected, even in countries with only light restrictions.
It is unlikely that #Omicron will be different.
Here is an update showing 7 day average cases by specimen date.
More than 50% of cases reported yesterday were sampled several days earlier.
The daily increase is marginal now.
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