Thread by @pieterstreicher

1 of 6:

#Omicron - Could this be the end of the pandemic?

For South Africa it might be.

Gauteng, South Africa is peaking with case levels similar to Delta, but with deaths expected to be 25 times lower.

(The 7 day average cases by specimen date were added - light blue.)

2 of 6:

Hospital beds could end up well below the 4,500 projected on 4 December already.

The Delta peak was 9,200.

data source: NICD
nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-i…

3 of 6:

ICU beds could end up well below the 570 projected on 4 December already.

The Delta peak was 1,433.

South Africa currently only has light restrictions:
businesstech.co.za/news/governmen…

4 of 6:

Ventilated beds are running on the projected numbers set on 4 December. A peak of 140 is expected.

The Delta peak was 869 (6x higher).

#Omicron deaths are expected to total 640 for this wave, 25x lower compared to Delta (15,400).

5 of 6:

The CFR of Delta was 3% up to late November.

The CFR of #Omicron is estimated at 0.42% and the IFR at 0.05%.

Green - actual deaths by date reported.
Blue - actual deaths by date of death.
Grey - 3% of 7d avg cases + 10d
Orange - 0.5% of 7d avg cases + 10d (+8 deaths)

6 of 6:

#Omicron is extremely mild (IFR ~0.05% in Gauteng) and is unlikely to infect more than 25% in a country even with light restrictions.

Despite the high transmissibility Omicron, the load on hospitals were significantly lower compared to Delta.