Thread by @princetongerry

The Pennsylvania Legislative Redistricting Commission released draft State House and State Senate maps and we've got grades.

Importantly, these maps are now subject to 30 days of public comment, after which adjustments can be made and another vote will be held.

First up is the State House map. It gets a C overall and in Partisan Fairness, with an F in Competitiveness and a B in Geography.

We'd anticipate somewhere in the neighborhood of 102 Democratic leaning seats, a bare majority in the chamber.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

Note that our grading system penalizes a map that gets an F in Competitiveness by lowering the Partisan Fairness score by 1 letter. So this map has a B in Partisan Fairness, but deflated by low competition. It has 17 competitive seats and it would take 25 to get a C.

A number of seats are just outside of the competitive range, so depending on turnout and candidates, control of the chamber could shift quite easily.

Also important to note is that we are using an election average, so each election could swing the makeup of the body quite a bit.

The map does a really good job preserving whole counties and respecting municipal boundaries.

It also has 8 districts with a BVAP over 50%, 4 with an HVAP over 50%, and 25 with an MVAP over 50%

Turning to the State Senate, we give the map an A, with an A in Partisan Fairness, a C in Competitiveness, and a C in Geography.

We'd expect an almost evenly split Senate, with around 25 D seats and 25 R seats, and 6 competitive districts.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

The map gets a C in Geography for a weird reason - it gets an A for respecting county boundaries, but an F on Compactness. Part of this is because the metrics we use for Compactness struggle to handle some of the odder shaped county boundaries in Pennsylvania.

It has 4 districts with a BVAP over 50% and 5 districts with an MVAP over 50%.

Pennsylvania residents will have an opportunity to speak about these maps at public hearings in January.

#PGP_PA #PAPol #FairMaps #Redistricting

@FairDisPA

We are aware that some of the district numbers don't line up with prior maps. Please use the ability to Zoom in on the map on our site to look at individual districts, rather than assuming that the number in the charts pairs with the number of a current district.