1/ Netherlands ASMR mortality update - now up to week 47 (end November).
Left: perception and panic (unadjusted crude mortality)
Right: Age Standardized Mortality (reality)
2/ ASMR By age group and sex. Problem or not?
All of the 2021 apparent excess in tweet 1 on the left is the illusion of demographics and mortality in the 75+ age population which is getting bigger and bigger every year.
Standardized, the statistical illusion disappears.
3/ Summary:
4/ One for Austria 🇦🇹 @freiheit_ruft @Bakuninsson
5/ Tweet Nr. 2 was not the best way to look at age bins (deaths in the age bin are normalized by adjusted total population).
When looking to age bins, mortality normalized by the population size of that age/sex/year bin only is better. No std. population needed here.
6/ The same as above for the 65-79. Only the male 75-79 bin shows a clear excess in those age bins.
--> The observed NL excess (weeks 40-47, 2021) seems almost entirely dominated by the 80+ groups.
7/ In the younger groups, there is nothing to observe.
8/ On the very young:nothing.
Note: the mortality spike in 2014, W29 (10-19 year olds) was the MH17 accident.
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