Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Climate, Conflict, Politics, Africa. Editor https://t.co/b6HbxvlPDn (NZ) Reporting from France. https://t.co/LNVK0y9b2z #nzpol #DesertRain

Dec 27, 2021, 17 tweets

Latest @NOAA GFS model runs show no end to the stormy weather over the Middle East within the 16 day long-range forecast window. Here we see accumulated rainfall by Jan 12th.

Here's a North Africa wide overnight update to 10am this morning of satellite presentation of this.

And Middle East satellite presentation today.

Final over night update is of the Amazon, the western seeding location of the airborn moisture behind these unusually intense December Arabian Peninsula rain forecasts.

Here's a special long range weather forecast broadcast on Christmas Day by Arabia Weather.

Saudi Special Newsletter | The last details of the forecast for the rainy situation this week via @YouTube

Today's rain fall was mainly in the Egyptian Desert according to @Meteoblue here we see a time sequence beginning at 9am.

Threadfix...

... and ending at 9pm this evening. @zoom_earth's radar data feed from the region appears to not be available today.

@zoom_earth Here's the latest 16 day accumulating rainfall forecast in full from the GFS3 model through to January 12th.

This is the corresponding PWAT (Water Vapour/Energy) simulation.

And finally, the most revealing of all the simulations the integrated water transport plot. Here we can see five consecutive bursts of intense aerial moisture coming over the Middle East in 16 days, roughly one every three days.

P.S. A few more satellite images since these look so spectacular.

A NASA satellite panorama showing the full 10.000 km long Atmospheric River yesterday morning.

And another at 11am this morning

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