Thread by @COVID19actuary

Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions and occupancy in England shows a significant increase in admissions nationally, up 54% week-on-week. 1,751 admissions were reported today.

Most of the charts that follow have been rescaled significantly in light of the latest data. 1/5

Looking at the regional data it is now clear that the rest of the country is following the sharp increase seen in London. Admissions up by more than 50% in most regions, but smaller increases for now in the South East (up 38%) and South West (up 15%). 2/5

This chart compares actual hospital admissions with modelled scenarios produced by SPI-M-O teams, including the latest update from @cmmid_lshtm to incorporate Omicron. Admissions seem to be slightly ahead of the modelled peak but tracking it closely. 3/5

COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England is back above 10,000 beds occupied. Mechanical Ventilation bed occupancy is up by 3% week-on-week, while other bed occupancy is up by 53%. The proportion of COVID patients in Mechanical Ventilation beds is the lowest it has been. 4/5

The data includes patients whose primary diagnosis is not COVID, and the proportion may be higher with Omicron. Nonetheless, a COVID diagnosis adds to the NHS burden, whatever the primary diagnosis.

Earlier today @john_actuary discussed the hospitals data with @BBCWorld. 5/6

The full interview between @john_actuary and @BBCRosAtkins is available on our website. John discusses very high case numbers, why a smaller proportion of these are resulting in admissions, general and ICU bed occupancy, and demand on the NHS. 6/6

covidactuaries.org/2021/12/29/bbc…

Admissions growth has been so sharp that we have a potentially confusing situation where the 1,751 admissions above for England is higher than the 1,213 UK total on the dashboard. Rest assured it is correct. UK total is for 21 Dec as devolved nations haven’t supplied newer data.