Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD on England & Omicron and what is going on.

My take on it.

TLDR: things are pretty bad and I'm sad & bewildered at lack of govt action and general levels of hopium. 1/18

First off cases... reported levels in England now more than twice as high as previous peak last January and more than three times higher than at start of December.

Latest numbers reflect infections *before* Christmas mixing.

These numbers are an underestimate.

2/18

Positivity rates are also rising v steeply - testing is not keeping up with cases.

All regions rising fast, London highest and earliest. Do not take London small case drop too seriously - drop in pre xmas tests & positivity still rising. Plus xmas likely to boost again. 3/18

As I (+ many others) warned a few weeks ago, we are now at limit of how many tests we can do - and that means case numbers increasingly poor indicator of spread. Positivity is what we need to watch out for.

Lack of tests also increases transmission - esp over New Year. 4/18

Infections still highest in 20-29 year olds, but rising fast in all other age groups apart from under 10s.

Rise in 60+ esp worrying - now approaching level last seen in Jan peak. Obv vax will make a massive difference - but how much higher will cases go - esp with Xmas? 5/18

And yes - cases ARE feeding into rapid rises in hospital admissions. I said we should expect increases after Xmas and that is what we are seeing.

Admissions are rising in *all* age groups.

Again, these admissions are from infections pre-xmas & just after Omicron dominant 6/18

And to 21 Dec, 70-75% Covid admissions *for* Covid. Many of rest caught it in hospital - which is not a good thing.

data available here
england.nhs.uk/statistics/sta…

7/18

It *does* seem as if fewer admissions need intensive care (good) but needing hospital is not a good thing and massively restricts NHS ability to treat other conditions - esp with so many staff sick.

An NHS crisis based on the wards instead of ICU is still an NHS crisis. 8/18

So what next? Firstly, cases have NOT peaked yet. With Xmas and then New Year mixing, likely to peak in early(ish) Jan. Admissions will keep going up steeply.

So far, admissions higher than recent LSHTM projections and have met SAGE prediction of >2K by end of year. 9/18

Warwick (also feeding into SAGE) published their projections today over a range of scenarios. I think we are in their "Omicron 80% less severe than Delta & Plan B only" scenario.

This gives peak hospital admissions *higher* than last January (but with fewer deaths). 10/18

Putting in a short circuit break before Christmas or even on Boxing day could have greatly reduced this peak. Returning slowly to normal from mid Jan would have minimised resurgence.

But govt has missed that boat and ignored the science. 11/18

Note that admissions are already higher than Warwick peak in best case "Plan B" scenario of 90% less severe.

NHS is planning for mini Nightingales and tents in car parks. Staff shortages are causing massive problems for all care. 12/18

We've recorded 1.4m cases in England in last 2 weeks alone.

Even if Omicron less severe we know *nothing* about its long term impact. Even if less likely to cause long covid, *hundreds of thousands* more people likely to suffer long covid - affecting them *and* economy. 13/18

We've also done nothing to protect schools - which will prolong Omicron wave & put kids at risk.

New York is warning of rising admissions in young kids - they can't be vaxxed & rely on LOW community transmission to protect them. 14/18

The usual people are out there saying all will be fine soon - we just have to let people get infected and it will be done. Just as they did at previous waves.

Mass prior infection have *not* stopped the Omicron wave. Nor has mass vax. Omicron is not last variant. 15/18

We have made a tremendous progress in boosting adults - 75% eligible now boosted. Our booster programme will turn an absolute tragedy into a "mere" terrible period.

But when will we realise that (current) vaccines cannot do it all on their own?! 16/18

We *could* have prevented the NHS strain over the next weeks. We *could* have prevented the economic damage of mass sickness in businesses. We *could* have invested in ventilation like Japan. We have not.

Instead of prevention we are planning hospital tents in car parks. 17/18

Many from govt to scientists to the media to the public have decided that 100,000s cases a day are fine. We are dangerously weakening our NHS & its staff.

Too many people will end up with chronic illness & too many will die.

All I can do is keep saying it's not fine. 18/18

PS some have asked why I've not shown death data. Firstly holiday reporting backlogs have made recent data non informative and secondly any increases from Omicron wave won't show up for at least another week, likely longer.