David H. Montgomery Profile picture
"A French history podcaster and enormous goshdang nerd after our own hearts" — @andrewvandam. Host of @thesiecle; senior data journalist with @YouGovAmerica.

Jan 5, 2022, 10 tweets

Today’s #COVID19 report in Minnesota showed a week-over-week drop in raw cases.

But if you’re not yet adjusting for testing volume, here in the year 2022, you may be beyond my help. The news is still bad; our average positivity rate shot up again, to 15%.

Today’s data are a little weird. We’ve got a big chunk of cases from last Thursday, before NYE, & then a big chunk of cases from the holiday weekend, when few people got tested but a lot of the ones who did were positive.

Again, never read too much into any one day’s report.

Newly reported cases fell overall today, due to lower testing volume, and @mnhealth only releases test totals/positivity rate by county on Thursdays for some reason, but w/ that, overall we’ve still got new cases in Hennepin/Ramsey higher than they’ve ever been all pandemic.

@mnhealth We’re not seeing an OVERALL bump in hospitalizations yet, which is good. But hospitalizations lag cases, so it might just be too early for this wave to show up.

And we ARE seeing a bump in COVID hospital bed use in the metro area, where most of the new cases are.

@mnhealth Death rates are thankfully still falling or flat, but remember this lags case counts by WEEKS. It doesn’t tell you anything about what’s happening right now, it tells you what was happening weeks ago.

Can’t wait until next week when we’ll have enough data for these year-over-year charts to work again.

MN’s rate of new vaccinations remains pretty low. Boosters are falling, too, after a pretty strong initial run.

Overall about 72% of Minnesotans have at least one dose, 66% are fully vaccinated, and 31% are boosted.

In case you were wondering, most of the doses MN is giving out (which are mostly boosters at this point) are Pfizer. J&J continues to be practically nonexistent, except for that first bump back in March/April.

Overall, about 90% of Minnesotans with at least one dose are fully vaccinated, and more than 40% are boosted.

Note these are approximations from population-level data, not based on individual-level data. So subject to some reporting errors. Take as approximate.

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