Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Author of 'Best Things First', 'False Alarm', and 'Skeptical Environmentalist', President Copenhagen Consensus: smart solutions through economic prioritization

Jan 9, 2022, 7 tweets

We're told solar and wind future

But when wind is not blowing and sun not shining?

Batteries!

Yet

The US uses 8GWh/minute and has 27.5GWh of battery storage: enough for 3m:24s

2030: 10m:10s

After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels

eia.gov/analysis/studi…

This is similar to what we see in Europe, with batteries able to supply a little more than 1 minute of average electricity consumption now and about 12 minutes in 2030

This is similar to what we see in Asia, with batteries able to supply just 31 seconds of average electricity consumption now and about 10 minutes in 2030

Lots of people suggesting we can fix this

Yes, but it makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup

More realistic solar costs are 4-7x higher

from cheap but very unreliable
to very expensive (but less unreliable)

lazard.com/perspective/le…

Most people don't appreciate that

most renewables (RE) to date are only possible because they are backed up by modern fossil (MF) fuel tech

(such as Combined Heat and Power, Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle)

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

People suggest that "it is always windy somewhere", but

1) not sufficient throughput between regions

2) European 2021 wind drought showed us it can be less windy almost everywhere

depleting other sources of energy and end up costing us a fortune

ft.com/content/d53b58…

How much are 3-10 minutes of electricity storage?

Not much

Every year in Germany, there are more than 5 days (7,320 minutes) with almost no wind, and every 10 years almost 8 days without wind (11,160minutes)

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

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