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Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Author of 'Best Things First', 'False Alarm', and 'Skeptical Environmentalist', President Copenhagen Consensus: smart solutions through economic prioritization
48 subscribers
Sep 2 • 7 tweets • 5 min read
The world is burning less, not more

That's contrary to the climate narrative

2025 has seen dramatically less fire in Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Europe

On this trajectory, 2025 could become the lowest-burn year in the 21st century

Did you see this reported anywhere?

Data: from satellites circling the planet 24/7 (MODIS), modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/…

2025 data from Jan 1-Sept 2 shows 80% as much burned area as normally for same period 2012-24 from Global Wildfire Information System, gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…

Light blue data shows extrapolation on current trajectory to full 2025Image In 2025, the world is burning less, not more

That's contrary to the climate narrative

2025 has seen extraordinarily little fire in Africa, much less than average, and even less than the minimum, from 2012-24

Did you see this reported anywhere?

Data from Global Wildfire Information System gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…Image
Jun 30 • 9 tweets • 5 min read
Awful climate scare

New Nature study claims climate means less food, “like everyone giving up breakfast."

Media even spins "mass starvation"

No, study's small print reveals ever more food, tempered slightly by climate

+ many other issues

The scare is the point

🧵Image New study claims climate leads to much less food

Reality? "Reduction" is merely a deviation from increasing baseline yields

So, not less food overall, but slightly less of much more food

Still, the researchers tell the "less food" story to the public

nature.com/articles/s4158…Image
May 4 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The cheap green lie

You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind just makes electricity more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image The cheap green lie

You are told that solar and wind are cheap

But cramming in more solar and wind makes power more and more costly

because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy

True for both 2023 and 2019, before Covid and Ukraine

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
Apr 30 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Two days ago, Spain lost 55% of its power, most from solar

Perception: Everyone wants to blame anything but renewables

Reality: With renewables, the grid gets vulnerable (missing inertia, mainly from fossil fuels) so we need more costly renewable management

So Reuters deceptively tells us, "don't blame renewables," blame "management of renewables"

reuters.com/business/energ…Image
Jan 25 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
The myth that the green energy transition is inevitable and will make cheap electricity for everyone is one of the most dangerous self-delusions of the global elite

My piece for Sunday Telegraph

archive.ph/EufH0Image Globally, fossil fuels supply 81% today (2022)

only marginally down from 81.2% in 2000

On current trends, fossil fuels are not on track to end in 2050
but in 4-9 centuries
iea.org/data-and-stati…Image
Oct 31, 2024 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Spanish floods are tragic — as they are everywhere

But remember flood deaths down dramatically

Globally, floods now kill 5,400/year, down from 400,000/year in 1930s

Deaths from European floods down 7-fold to less than 100 per year today

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image Despite breathless climate reporting,

not only are European floods causing fewer deaths (tweet above) but

Losses from floods in Europe are declining, not increasing

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
Sep 15, 2024 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
New study: Climate change saves 282,000 babies

Higher temperatures mean more heat, and more babies dying from heat

but it also means less cold, and many more babies not dying from cold

In total, higher temps saved 282,251 babies in 29 poorer countries from 2000-19

Did you read that anywhere?

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image As we have come to expect from studies of heat and cold, they use unequal scales, which makes heat and cold look about the same

— they're not, as you can see on the right


nature.com/articles/s4146…

Image
Sep 11, 2024 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
EU climate policy has enormous costs

Industry electricity prices have increased 70% in real terms since 2000

EU industries now pay 2.7x the electricity price in the US (and 1.9x in China)

EU households now pay 2x US electricity price (and 3.3x China)

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image EU climate policy causes high electricity costs

Consequently, EU can afford much less electricity per person

In this century, the EU has managed to get access to almost as much electricity per person as the US got in 1968


iea.org/data-and-stati…
data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.P…Image
Aug 30, 2024 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Outrageously misleading climate scare from the UN

Today, 85% more old people die from heat

What they don't tell you:

There are now 86% more old people



un.org/sg/en/content/…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
population.un.org/dataportal/ I write about this and many other heat scares from the UN in today's WSJ

wsj.com/opinion/united…
Aug 3, 2024 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
Fake news doesn't just come from foreign enemies

Friday, WHO claimed that 175,000 Europeans died from extreme heat

I pointed out that was untrue, almost 4x exaggerated

Saturday morning, WHO admitted this in the smallest possible way — they simply changed their website (and address) and had some online publications delete "extreme"

But, of course, by then the story had already made its intended impact across the world

WHO believes "Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century" — which is just laughable and one of the reasons it was caught off-guard by Covid

This belief colors the 'findings' of WHO. In their Friday statement, the WHO Europe director explicitly worries about the "climate crisis" and expressed his support for climate action costing $1,000s of trillions (1.5oC target), so he obviously would like a dramatic and large number to make it around the world

Summary: WHO told us extreme heat kills 175K+, a number they've now admitted is almost 4x exaggerated. And they don't tell you that cold deaths at 657K are almost 4x bigger than all heat deaths. This is not informing you well

Journalists have to realize that when e.g. WHO says something, it also needs to be fact-checked

Friday claim:

Saturday update:

My tweet to ask for correction (which the director hasn't replied to):

The actual problem put in context:

WHO climate biggest challenge: web.archive.org/web/2024080206…
who.int/europe/news/it…


web.archive.org/web/2015100811…Image WHO wrongly claimed that 175,000 Europeans die from extreme heat every year

This scary but wrong story got all the headlines

When called out, WHO acknowledged it by simply changing their website (and some online publications)

— but by then, all the scary stories had already had their impact

Friday claim:
Their update:

My tweet to ask for correction (which the director hasn't replied to):
The actual problem put in context: web.archive.org/web/2024080206…
who.int/europe/news/it…

Image
Jul 17, 2024 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
Another environmental scare debunked:

Acid rain killing all forests was the main environmental scare in the 1980s

A new half-century study shows acid rain doesn't kill trees

— actually, trees grow more with acid rain!

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image Acid rain scare in the 1980s delivered full-on panic

No more so than in Germany, where papers claimed "the forest is dying," called it an "ecological Hiroshima" and claimed ‘‘the dying of the forests will have a greater impact on our country than World War II’’

All falseImage
Jul 6, 2024 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Today, the Great Barrier Reef is better than ever

But 12 years ago, we were told about the "Great Reef Catastrophe"

and how the reef would be almost gone today

Moral of the story: Don't always believe the scare stories

Refs in🧵 Here is the official data

apps.aims.gov.au/reef-monitorin…
Jul 2, 2024 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Doesn't fit the narrative, but

2024 record coral cover for Great Barrier Reef

Based on official data for all 11 sectors of GBR,

Last three years, 2022-2024, have been unprecedented

Data: apps.aims.gov.au/reef-monitorin…Image Official, reef-wide average widely published as the Great Barrier Reef got worse

But when it got better, official average stopped

Here is the optimal average (least-square) based on their 11 published sectors,

Last official reef-wide average: apps.aims.gov.au/reef-monitorin…
aims.gov.au/reef-monitorin…Image
Jun 26, 2024 • 6 tweets • 4 min read
Misinformation:

New York Times tells you that heat is “the deadliest of all extreme weather events”

But NYTimes simply ignore their own data, which shows

Cold is 9x deadlier

But, of course, this doesn't fit the climate narrative

NYTimes:
WMO:
Data from Lancet: nytimes.com/2024/06/21/cli…
library.wmo.int/viewer/68500/d…
thelancet.com/journals/lanpl…Image Not just the New York Times misinforming on heat deaths:

The Guardian misinforms and misdirects, trying to avoid telling you that cold deaths vastly outweigh heat deaths


Image
Jun 18, 2024 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
When you hear about heat wave deaths in India, it's the smallest temperature risk

About 25,000 people die in India from extreme heat

Almost 600,000 die from moderate cold

But only extreme heat fits the narrative

journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/a…

x.com/BjornLomborg/s…Image Indeed, across the world, cold deaths vastly outweigh heat deaths

But only heat deaths fit the narrative, leaving you badly informed

Image
Feb 20, 2024 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Climate alarmists are annoyed that global climate-related disaster deaths have declined dramatically

Then they discovered how to cherry-pick deaths to look like they’re increasing

— just (indefensibly) remove the top 50 most deadly mega-disasters and rig the scales

🧵+refsImage After manipulating their stats, they have the temerity to claim “Misinterpreting statistics could be harmful if it supports a discourse minimizing the importance of climate action”

I’m pretty sure misinterpreting statistics is wrong no matter what

, p7cred.be/sites/default/…Image
Feb 4, 2024 • 10 tweets • 6 min read
CO₂ and climate make the world greener

Over 2001-20 the world added so many new leaves

the additional leaf area is equivalent to 1.4x the area of the Contiguous US

Climate net problem

but breathless reporting ignores an ever-greening world

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image CO₂ makes world greener

Every two seconds global leaf area grows by 5 soccer pitches

Every year, the world adds almost three Great Britains of additional leaf area

Climate net problem, but breathless reporting ignores an ever-greening world

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Jan 16, 2024 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Gasoline, not electric cars:

Two-thirds of American's want their next car to be fossil fuel driven, with just 6% battery-electric

Deloitte new 2024 Global Automotive Consumer Study

Key trend: "Slowing EV (electric car) momentum"

deloitte.com/global/en/Indu…Image Electric cars: Consumers worry

They worry about charging time, range anxiety,
cost, battery safety, and availability of charging infrastructure

deloitte.com/global/en/Indu…
Image
Jan 14, 2024 • 8 tweets • 5 min read
Climate alarmists incessantly hype extreme weather

But global climate-related disaster costs are declining

This decline is not just evident globally but also for rich and poor countries, and for flood, flash flood, coastal flood, cold, drought, wind, and all damage

Why don't we hear this?

Notice, damage is measured in % GDP, as even the UN insists on measuring it (e.g. SDG 11.5.2, )

This is because the same flood or storm will create much more damage in a much richer world:

If there are twice as many houses, a flood will tend to damage twice as many houses

Update of academic paper:


unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/…
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/global-disas…
Image Cost of climate-related disasters has dropped nearly 5-fold since 1980

True for both richer and poorer countries and for all countries

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Jan 13, 2024 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
As cold envelops the Northern Hemisphere, stay warm!

Despite the climate narrative, almost everywhere cold is much more deadly than heat

Cheap and reliable energy to keep us warm used to be the hallmark of prosperous countries

no more because of our climate obsession

🧵+refsImage Why is cold dangerous?

Because it causes outer blood vessels to constrict to conserve core body heat, driving up blood pressure

Here 2+ million measurements, 6 cities in the US

130+ is classified as high blood pressure
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29677012/
Image
Jan 9, 2024 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
Despite breathless climate reporting about ever more fire

The US burned area last year was the lowest this century

It was less than 7% of the 1930s

Climate does increase the burned area

but zoning and forest management are much more important

Thread + refsImage We actually have good decadal estimates of US burned area from 1900

2023 saw less than 3% of the area that burned each year in 1900s (1900-1909)



data credibility: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…
nifc.gov/fire-informati…
Image