Bjorn Lomborg Profile picture
Author of 'Best Things First', 'False Alarm', and 'Skeptical Environmentalist', President Copenhagen Consensus: smart solutions through economic prioritization
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Oct 31 5 tweets 3 min read
Spanish floods are tragic — as they are everywhere

But remember flood deaths down dramatically

Globally, floods now kill 5,400/year, down from 400,000/year in 1930s

Deaths from European floods down 7-fold to less than 100 per year today

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image Despite breathless climate reporting,

not only are European floods causing fewer deaths (tweet above) but

Losses from floods in Europe are declining, not increasing

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
Sep 15 6 tweets 4 min read
New study: Climate change saves 282,000 babies

Higher temperatures mean more heat, and more babies dying from heat

but it also means less cold, and many more babies not dying from cold

In total, higher temps saved 282,251 babies in 29 poorer countries from 2000-19

Did you read that anywhere?

nature.com/articles/s4146…Image As we have come to expect from studies of heat and cold, they use unequal scales, which makes heat and cold look about the same

— they're not, as you can see on the right


nature.com/articles/s4146…

Image
Sep 11 5 tweets 3 min read
EU climate policy has enormous costs

Industry electricity prices have increased 70% in real terms since 2000

EU industries now pay 2.7x the electricity price in the US (and 1.9x in China)

EU households now pay 2x US electricity price (and 3.3x China)

iea.org/data-and-stati…Image EU climate policy causes high electricity costs

Consequently, EU can afford much less electricity per person

In this century, the EU has managed to get access to almost as much electricity per person as the US got in 1968


iea.org/data-and-stati…
data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.P…Image
Aug 30 5 tweets 3 min read
Outrageously misleading climate scare from the UN

Today, 85% more old people die from heat

What they don't tell you:

There are now 86% more old people



un.org/sg/en/content/…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
population.un.org/dataportal/ I write about this and many other heat scares from the UN in today's WSJ

wsj.com/opinion/united…
Aug 3 5 tweets 5 min read
Fake news doesn't just come from foreign enemies

Friday, WHO claimed that 175,000 Europeans died from extreme heat

I pointed out that was untrue, almost 4x exaggerated

Saturday morning, WHO admitted this in the smallest possible way — they simply changed their website (and address) and had some online publications delete "extreme"

But, of course, by then the story had already made its intended impact across the world

WHO believes "Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century" — which is just laughable and one of the reasons it was caught off-guard by Covid

This belief colors the 'findings' of WHO. In their Friday statement, the WHO Europe director explicitly worries about the "climate crisis" and expressed his support for climate action costing $1,000s of trillions (1.5oC target), so he obviously would like a dramatic and large number to make it around the world

Summary: WHO told us extreme heat kills 175K+, a number they've now admitted is almost 4x exaggerated. And they don't tell you that cold deaths at 657K are almost 4x bigger than all heat deaths. This is not informing you well

Journalists have to realize that when e.g. WHO says something, it also needs to be fact-checked

Friday claim:

Saturday update:

My tweet to ask for correction (which the director hasn't replied to):

The actual problem put in context:

WHO climate biggest challenge: web.archive.org/web/2024080206…
who.int/europe/news/it…


web.archive.org/web/2015100811…Image WHO wrongly claimed that 175,000 Europeans die from extreme heat every year

This scary but wrong story got all the headlines

When called out, WHO acknowledged it by simply changing their website (and some online publications)

— but by then, all the scary stories had already had their impact

Friday claim:
Their update:

My tweet to ask for correction (which the director hasn't replied to):
The actual problem put in context: web.archive.org/web/2024080206…
who.int/europe/news/it…

Image
Jul 17 7 tweets 4 min read
Another environmental scare debunked:

Acid rain killing all forests was the main environmental scare in the 1980s

A new half-century study shows acid rain doesn't kill trees

— actually, trees grow more with acid rain!

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image Acid rain scare in the 1980s delivered full-on panic

No more so than in Germany, where papers claimed "the forest is dying," called it an "ecological Hiroshima" and claimed ‘‘the dying of the forests will have a greater impact on our country than World War II’’

All falseImage
Jul 6 4 tweets 3 min read
Today, the Great Barrier Reef is better than ever

But 12 years ago, we were told about the "Great Reef Catastrophe"

and how the reef would be almost gone today

Moral of the story: Don't always believe the scare stories

Refs in🧵 Here is the official data

apps.aims.gov.au/reef-monitorin…
Jul 2 4 tweets 3 min read
Doesn't fit the narrative, but

2024 record coral cover for Great Barrier Reef

Based on official data for all 11 sectors of GBR,

Last three years, 2022-2024, have been unprecedented

Data: apps.aims.gov.au/reef-monitorin…Image Official, reef-wide average widely published as the Great Barrier Reef got worse

But when it got better, official average stopped

Here is the optimal average (least-square) based on their 11 published sectors,

Last official reef-wide average: apps.aims.gov.au/reef-monitorin…
aims.gov.au/reef-monitorin…Image
Jun 26 6 tweets 4 min read
Misinformation:

New York Times tells you that heat is “the deadliest of all extreme weather events”

But NYTimes simply ignore their own data, which shows

Cold is 9x deadlier

But, of course, this doesn't fit the climate narrative

NYTimes:
WMO:
Data from Lancet: nytimes.com/2024/06/21/cli…
library.wmo.int/viewer/68500/d…
thelancet.com/journals/lanpl…Image Not just the New York Times misinforming on heat deaths:

The Guardian misinforms and misdirects, trying to avoid telling you that cold deaths vastly outweigh heat deaths


Image
Feb 20 8 tweets 5 min read
Climate alarmists are annoyed that global climate-related disaster deaths have declined dramatically

Then they discovered how to cherry-pick deaths to look like they’re increasing

— just (indefensibly) remove the top 50 most deadly mega-disasters and rig the scales

🧵+refsImage After manipulating their stats, they have the temerity to claim “Misinterpreting statistics could be harmful if it supports a discourse minimizing the importance of climate action”

I’m pretty sure misinterpreting statistics is wrong no matter what

, p7cred.be/sites/default/…Image
Feb 4 10 tweets 6 min read
CO₂ and climate make the world greener

Over 2001-20 the world added so many new leaves

the additional leaf area is equivalent to 1.4x the area of the Contiguous US

Climate net problem

but breathless reporting ignores an ever-greening world

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image CO₂ makes world greener

Every two seconds global leaf area grows by 5 soccer pitches

Every year, the world adds almost three Great Britains of additional leaf area

Climate net problem, but breathless reporting ignores an ever-greening world

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Jan 16 4 tweets 3 min read
Gasoline, not electric cars:

Two-thirds of American's want their next car to be fossil fuel driven, with just 6% battery-electric

Deloitte new 2024 Global Automotive Consumer Study

Key trend: "Slowing EV (electric car) momentum"

deloitte.com/global/en/Indu…Image Electric cars: Consumers worry

They worry about charging time, range anxiety,
cost, battery safety, and availability of charging infrastructure

deloitte.com/global/en/Indu…
Image
Jan 14 8 tweets 5 min read
Climate alarmists incessantly hype extreme weather

But global climate-related disaster costs are declining

This decline is not just evident globally but also for rich and poor countries, and for flood, flash flood, coastal flood, cold, drought, wind, and all damage

Why don't we hear this?

Notice, damage is measured in % GDP, as even the UN insists on measuring it (e.g. SDG 11.5.2, )

This is because the same flood or storm will create much more damage in a much richer world:

If there are twice as many houses, a flood will tend to damage twice as many houses

Update of academic paper:


unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/…
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/global-disas…
Image Cost of climate-related disasters has dropped nearly 5-fold since 1980

True for both richer and poorer countries and for all countries

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Jan 13 9 tweets 6 min read
As cold envelops the Northern Hemisphere, stay warm!

Despite the climate narrative, almost everywhere cold is much more deadly than heat

Cheap and reliable energy to keep us warm used to be the hallmark of prosperous countries

no more because of our climate obsession

🧵+refsImage Why is cold dangerous?

Because it causes outer blood vessels to constrict to conserve core body heat, driving up blood pressure

Here 2+ million measurements, 6 cities in the US

130+ is classified as high blood pressure
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29677012/
Image
Jan 9 11 tweets 7 min read
Despite breathless climate reporting about ever more fire

The US burned area last year was the lowest this century

It was less than 7% of the 1930s

Climate does increase the burned area

but zoning and forest management are much more important

Thread + refsImage We actually have good decadal estimates of US burned area from 1900

2023 saw less than 3% of the area that burned each year in 1900s (1900-1909)



data credibility: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.…
nifc.gov/fire-informati…
Image
Jan 2 4 tweets 3 min read
Congrats to Germany

Super-expensive but ineffective climate policies mean

De-industrialization

with small climate benefit


telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/…
archive.ph/uHOKy
Image Germans pay ever more for power

Even before war in Ukraine, costs had increased more than 50% from 2000 to early 2022

to 35 euro-cents per kWh (or 38 US¢)


destatis.de/EN/Themes/Econ…
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/e…
Image
Jan 1 4 tweets 3 min read
Climate-related disasters have declined 97+% over the century

Richer, smarter and more resilient societies reduce disaster deaths

This swamps any potential climate signal

Why is this not reported?

Instead, media only delivers climate doom

facebook.com/photo/?fbid=93…
Image The risk of dying from climate-related disasters has declined 99.4%

As the global population quadrupled over the century, the risk per million declined from 241 in 1920s to 1.5 in 2020s

Compare, global risk of dying in traffic is 163

Update of sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Image
Dec 31, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
Wrong:

Just 6 months ago, the International Energy Agency predicted that rapid replacement with electric cars would mean gasoline demand peaked in 2019

Climate political correctness = bad predictions
🧵

archive.is/JPsdh
Image The International Energy Agency has gone all-in claiming/hoping that the end of fossil fuels is just around the corner

It puts them in sharp disagreement with Biden's Energy Information Administration, which sees more gas, oil and coal use up to 2050

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/going-all-in…
Image
Dec 30, 2023 6 tweets 4 min read
Climate alarmists scare us of ever more fire

But NASA satellites show that the world is burning 𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨

Why don't we hear this?


wsj.com/articles/clima…
archive.ph/WfDJh
modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/…
Image Data: Fire has burned 𝙡𝙤𝙬𝙚𝙨𝙩 area in Europe in a decade

Media: constantly showed fire from Greece (much more burn), but ignored France, Spain, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Portugal and all other places with much less burn

We need better information
gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.stat…
Image
Dec 25, 2023 4 tweets 3 min read
China is super-cold, with Beijing coldest in seven decades

Yet, some just can't help themselves: claiming it is caused by global warming

Apart from sounding stupid, it is also simply wrong

reuters.com/world/china/ch…
Image Apparently, a climatologist claims that the China cold fits with climate change, because we'd expect more extreme cold waves

But no, that is *not* what the 2023 UN Climate Panel summary report tells us



, p46 scmp.com/news/china/sci…
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/
Image
Dec 7, 2023 6 tweets 4 min read
We're told solar and wind future

But when there is no wind and sun?

Batteries!

But

In 2024, storage just 5min

After that, need 100% backup, mostly fossil fuels

In 2050: 47min

Yet, 100% Solar&Wind needs almost three months



frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/d…
Image Lots of people suggest batteries can fix intermittency

Yes, but makes 𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗲𝘄𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 because we need to pay for backup

More realistic solar & wind 2x or more

from cheap but very unreliable to expensive and only less unreliable

lazard.com/research-insig…
Image