Some of the worst tech and business predictions were made by people most-informed on the industries.
THREAD: Here are 10 quotes with the rational behind them (and sources).
Internet Prediction (1995)
“I predict the Internet…will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.
Robert Metcalfe (Ethernet inventor) wrote this in Infoworld Magazine. In 1999, he put the column in a blender and "ate" his words for being wrong.
Mobile Computing Prediction (1992)
The idea of a wireless personal communicator in every pocket is "a pipe dream driven by greed."
Intel CEO Andy Grove at the '92 Mobile Conference
PC Prediction (mid-1970s)
“There is no reason an individual would ever want a computer in their home.”
This quote is attributed to Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), a minicomputer manufacturer. The source itself is from an employee who worked at DEC.
The Beatles Prediction (1962)
“We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out.”
Decca Records — a UK record label well-reputed for the development of new recording methods — rejected The Beatles following an audition.
Internet Prediction (1998)
“The growth of the Internet will slow. By 2005, it will become clear that [its] impact on the economy has been no greater than fax machines.”
Economist Paul Krugman wrote it for (no joke) an article titled "Why Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong"
Cars Prediction (1903)
“The automobile is a fad, a novelty. Horses are here to stay.”
This advice was given by President of Michigan Savings Bank to Horace Rackham, who was Henry Ford’s lawyer and was offered an opportunity to invest in Ford Motor Co.
iPhone Prediction (2007)
“There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.”
Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, who was critical of iPhone’s price point ($500) and form factor (no keyboard).
Music Subscription Prediction (2003)
“The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model and it might not be successful."
Apple CEO Steve Jobs in a Rolling Stone interview.
Cloud Prediction (2008)
“The computer industry is the only industry that is more fashion-driven than women's fashion. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I have no idea what anyone is talking about. What is [cloud]? It's complete gibberish. It’s insane.”
Larry Ellison at OracleWorld.
Spam Prediction (2004)
“Two years from now [in 2006], spam will be solved.”
Bill Gates a the World Economic Forum, explaining that Microsoft had some tools in the work that would finally solve spam.
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Another one you might like:
Here are the rationales behind the bad predictions (and the sources).
trungphan.substack.com/p/10-really-ba…
These popular "bad tech prediction" quotes are untrue:
Tracked these predictions down after reading Balaji's tweet:
EV Prediction (2015)
Tesla is a “a joke that can’t be taken seriously compared to the great car companies of Germany."
Former Daimler chairman Edzard Reuter questioning the prospects of the Model 3 launch.
For the other perspective: here are hyped up products that actually just straight up failed
Krugman’s internet prediction always gets roasted the hardest. Here was his response a few years later
🔗 trungphan.substack.com/p/10-really-ba…
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