Thread by @RaleighWx

1) So a look at where we stand now I posted this earlier but you can see that over the last 10 runs the GFS has trended the main disturbance W/SW from OH to OK This allows for less confluence over the NE (cold high pressure) and earlier strengthening/amplification of the main s/w

2) The result is that the GFS now take the primary low into Kentucky, not AL/MS and miller B secondary cyclogensis occurs over the NC coastal plain not off the SC coast. The 6z GFS shown This scenario causes a changeover for most east of the mtns Big snow for The apps/interior NE

3) The GEFS (GFS Ensemble) mean has been consistently further south/east (less ampified). The 6z run still is BUT it trended more towards the op GFS. Look at the low placements now vs the 00z run. More members over the NC coastal plain not offshore. I.e trending towards op GFS.

4) Now the GFS/GEFS is just one model family. The ECMWF/UKMET are further south/less amped. The 00z ECMWF shown. It takes the primary into N AL, with miller B secondary cyclogenesis off the SC coast. It still tracks the surface low over the NC coastal plain.

5) This is a snowier/more frozen solution compared to the GFS for our area and also into the MA/NE as is the UKMET which shows the primary tracking along the Gulf coast and re-development off the Ga coast. Still tracks into NC coastal plain. But less amped than GFS

6) The 00z EPS (ECMWF Ensemble) mean though also trended further NW. Here are same images as shown for the GEFS. More tracks over eastern NC as opposed to offshore. Still a big winter storm for many, but ice/changeover issues likely implied.

7) And for the sake of completeness, the same ensemble graphic but for the Canadian Ensemble (GEPS). Again a trend W/NW of the members on the 00z cycle vs the 12z cycle.

8) So where does this leave us? Well, the trend is unmistakable But does it continue and will the end solution be as amped/west as the GFS shows My guess is no it wont be as strong as the GFS shows but I do think we will see the secondary likely over the NC coastal plain or coast

9) This would likely lead to mixing or changeover issues for those at least in central/eastern NC, eastern Va if true depending on how stubborn the CAD wedge is and if it is stronger than modeled, a possibility. For now, we need to watch the model trends today.

10) I still feel confident in a major winter storm affecting the area. Western NC, NW SC, N Ga, E TN, W-C Va stand the best chance at this moment to see the most snow and less if any mixing issues. Central SC, Central NC, E Va, look to have to worry about ice the most.

11) A chageover to rain is possible if the more inland track is true and the CAD wedge breaks down as fast as the global show. Still 4 days out. So things can change. Stay tuned!