Thread by @max_gagliardi

1/ We will never eliminate fossil fuels

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2/ A common talking point in media & politics is that “we have to rapidly eliminate fossil fuels”. Not only is eliminating fossil fuels objectively impossible to accomplish, doing so would also be devastating to human progress and is radical to even propose

3/ The 4 Pillars of Modern Society are Cement, Steel, Ammonia and Plastic. The common characteristic of these 4 products is that they depend on large-scale inputs of fossil fuels, both for process heat and as feedstocks. IEA expects the consumption of all 4 to rise 50% by 2050

4/ Electricity is not economic to use for industrial processes. The cost of electricity is 3x-5x more expensive per unit of energy than natural gas. In addition, coal makes up such a large % of global power mix, using electricity would actually increase emissions

4/ Cement & Steel create the structures that keep us safe from climate & allow for humanity to make modern infrastructure. Emerging economies will need massive amounts of both to get on par with the Western world. China & India are the largest consumers. We should encourage this

5/ Ammonia creates the fertilizer that makes modern agriculture sustainable. It is made through a thermochemical reaction that requires natural gas (methane). Less than 1/2 of the world’s population could be sustained without fossil fuel based fertilizer. There is no replacement

6/ Plastics are a direct derivative of fossil fuels and are the fastest growing product that is driving modern civilization forward. The IEA expects plastics use to rise 150% by 2050. Without plastics modern life would look dramatically different than it does now

7/ A good example is the battle against COVID. Without plastics the pandemic would have claimed millions of additional lives. We would not have PPE, ventilators, a vaccine, or even remote work (computers) without plastics. Fossil fuels were the unsung hero of the pandemic

8/ The idea that we can eliminate fossil fuels is not real. Even the most aggressive transition of electricity generation sources or transportation (EVs) would not reduce the massive demand for fossil fuels that we will have into the future. This is based on physics not politics

9/ Fossil fuels have been the #1 driver of increased human life & flourishing over the last 100 years. The success of human life on earth is directly tied to the use of fossil fuels. Next time you hear someone say we are going to eliminate them, politely tell them they’re wrong