1) Bullish on oil prices?

Let's take a look at how the price of oil has responded during times when the bond yield curve was inverted over the past 50 years

🧵 2) An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates, and it is often seen as a signal of an impending economic downturn

Is this the end… of the Petrodollar?

Thread: The petrodollar system was established in the 1970s after the US abandoned the gold standard and needed a way to prop up the value of the dollar

The system is an arrangement whereby oil is traded globally exclusively in US dollars+

Why did the richest man on the planet buy Twitter?

Everyone looking at the financial metrics of the deal are completely missing the point

He bought it for one reason

A Thread:

🧵 "What is the most resilient parasite? Bacteria? A virus?

An Idea

Resilient... highly contagious

Once an idea has taken hold of the brain, it's almost impossible to eradicate

An idea is the most power force in the universe. The right idea can consume someone's brain"

5 things I've learned as an entrepreneur that I wish I knew when I started: 1.) Just do. A founder once told me that a good way to never be become an entrepreneur is to talk about it all the time. Stop talking about it and start doing

Once you start, you’re going to find out really quick how good your idea is

All the people I know that have created generational wealth had luck play a huge role in it

But not all luck is totally random, there is a way to rig the system

"Understanding Luck" - a thread: Luck can be divided into four categories:

1.Blind luck
2.Hustle Luck
3.Serendipitous Luck
4.Unique Luck

We have raised hundreds of millions of dollars using:

Private equity (from a sponsor)
Our own PE fund (from LPs)
Debt financing
Angel investors
Joint ventures
Self-funded ventures

A thread on what I’ve learned Raising capital can make or break you

Remember once you take someone else’s money it completely changes the way you have to think about business

If you have never raised money before hopefully this thread will give you a sense of what’s in store

Broken Bow Short-Term Rental Booking Trends Update: 12/31/2022

Occupancy for Dec. 2022 (62%) remained strong when compared to Dec 2021 (65%), 2020 (65%) and 2019 (40%), while available cabins to rent have increased YoY

(Chart from Logan Hassinger on FB) We should experience similar booking trends for Jan and Feb as past years and average around 40% for these two months

You've likely also seen plenty of articles about how STR's are "doomed" etc. however I would caution against underestimating Broken Bow

It’s a different animal

THE FIRST CHAPTER IN OUR NEW E-BOOK IS LIVE!

"How the Money is Made: The Essential Guide for Building a Successful Oil & Gas Commercial Strategy"

Article link here: ancova.substack.com/p/how-the-mone… This article is the first chapter in our series focused on helping oil and gas producers build a successful commercial strategy to maximize the value of their product sales

1/ Debunking IEA's “good news” on Renewables report

Claims like “solar is set to overtake coal” are not accurate, or even in the realm of reality

Thread below cutting through the green hype with some energy realism

🧵 2/ This chart convienenty stops in 2019, prior to the historic rise of inflation

Green tech costs are up significantly. The primary driver of their decline in price the last decade was cheap fossil fuel feedstocks, predatory Chinese price dumping, and cheap Chinese slave labor

1/ What’s the most important question facing oil markets right now?

Why is U.S. shale production growth so slow despite higher prices?

It is a basic question with a complex answer

🧵 2/ There are several factors that are coming together that are preventing the industry from increasing activity and growing production

The end result is that US oil production looks to stay subdued for much longer than many of the experts expected

1/ Energy Sobriety Thread

The global economy is in the middle of an energy shock

Energy security is now front & center for the first time in decades

The fact is the world remains dependent on cheap and reliable fossil fuels

Inflation is only making this problem worse 2/ Policy makers are now starting to realize the insurmountable problem of replacing even Russia's 10% of the global energy mix with Solar, Wind and Batteries

Two decades, trillions spent, and we are nowhere near an "energy transition."

In fact, we are burning even more coal

1/ It's all about the energy, stupid

A thread:

In 1971, President Nixon ended the United States’ commitment to convert dollars into gold at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce

In effect, the U.S. Government defaulted on its commitments and started the era of unlimited fiat 2/ Unlike fiat, gold was tied to the physical world and required energy to mine

This characteristic made gold an “un-forgeable” asset that had been used as a store of value for millennia

In the decades since moving off the gold standard we have seen unprecedented inflation

1/ Before WW2, the United States transported most of its crude oil by tanker ship from the oil fields in Texas to the industry hubs in the northeastern part of the country

Once the war started it quickly became apparent that energy was firmly in the crosshairs of the enemy 2/ On April 10th, 1942 the ship “Gulfamerica” was making her maiden voyage from Port Arthur, Texas, to New York

Around 10 pm that evening, Gulfamerica was cruising across the dark ocean silhouetted by the lights of Jacksonville, Florida

1/ The Energy Revolution

thread 2/ At the end of the 1970s conventional wisdom said the world was running out of oil & natural gas

Many believed oil & gas production (especially in the U.S.) had peaked. The number of economic drilling locations had dwindled and we were on the slow decline

WTF happened in 1971?

1/ The Energy Capacity Paradox

Thread 2/ Lewis Fry Richardson was born in the UK in 1881, he was a mathematician and scientist who spent his career studying natural phenomenon

Richardson primarily focused on weather forecasting using mathematics.

1/ Throughout my career I have been fortunate to be a part of numerous joint ventures and partnerships

A thread below on some of the lessons I have learned along the way

(not legal advice) 2/ The best first step in doing a joint venture or partnership is getting a good law firm to represent you

This may seem like an unnecessary expense but trust me it is the best money you will ever spend. Interview multiple firms, ask people for advice on who to use

10 facts that debunk the most popular fear-based narratives

🧵 #1: We are safer than ever from climate. Climate deaths are plummeting. In the last 100 years climate related deaths are down 97%!

How to create an energy crisis, a step-by-step guide to chaos: Step 1: Spread Misinformation – first it is imperative that the public be misinformed on how complex energy systems work. Never bother them with the details, headline culture wants sound bites

“Green” energy good

Fossil Fuels bad

Keep it simple, keep them stupid

1/ The “Inflation Reduction Act” is going to increase inflation on virtually everything

thread 2/ Corporate Minimum Tax:

The new CMT will apply to corporations making over $1 billion in pre-tax income per year. Expect this tax to be passed directly to consumers via increased product pricing. That’s right, more inflation, and it will be widespread

Fossil Fuels Make:

All Plastics
Ink
Upholstery
Bicycle Tires
Dresses
Motorcycle Helmets
Curtains
Vitamin Capsules
Dashboards
Putty
Skis
Tool Racks
Mops
Umbrellas
Roofing
Denture Adhesive
Speakers
Tennis Rackets
Nylon Rope Clothes
Combs
Vaporizers
Heart Valves
Enamel
Anesthetics
Dentures
Cold cream
Fan Belts
Refrigerators
Diesel fuel
Floor Wax
Sweaters
Sports Car Bodies
Tires
Dishwasher parts
Caulking
Faucet Washers
Food Preservatives
Antihistamines
Cortisone
Dyes
Life Jackets
TV Cabinets