Thread by @therealarod1984

1/14 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* Positivity rate still hovering @ 32%
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* All the Hospitalization metrics continue cooling off, and cooling off very rapidly
1/n

1/14 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/4:
* Pos rate 32.02%, where its basically going to top out in the 32s. We will see on Monday if we can discern a hard peak.
* DSHS is receiving 1.3 million tests a week. #nuts

2/n
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1/14 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 48K
* Positive tests & rate in the next few days will determine if we go much beyond 48K
* % of positive test conversion to cases is up to 56% as of 1/4 & rising fast, also indicating peak is soon
.
3/n

1/14 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* 3rd day of % beds tagged as Covid around 18.6%
* Census +198 beds from yesterday. Last Fri was +476
* Admits 7DMA - 1828. 7DMA growth down to 26%. You can see a crest forming
* Hosp growth down to 42%, looking at nose over in ~11 days

4/n

1/14 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* SETRAC (HOU) WoW admits down for 4th straight day
* ICU census at 2321 & a little ahead of 2020 Winter pace, but you can see a crest forming
* Vents, you can see a crest forming as well. It may never catch 2020 pace, much less 2020 peak

5/n
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1/14 Conclusion

* PREDICTION ALERT *

I am predicting Texas 7DMA Hospitalization peak on 1/26/22. You can take that to the bank.

6/end