Thread by @swmcintosh

#TerminatorWatch. Why has #SunspotCycle25 taken off.......? Well..... the #Terminator has arrived. In this thread we'll show some of the preliminary observations and discuss the implications for our forecast of #SunspotCycle25 strength.

@leamonrj @rickyegeland Using small features in the Sun's corona [called "EUV BrightPoints"] we trace the progress of the Sun's magnetic #HaleCycle. Hale Cycles overlap, but come to an abrupt end - #terminator - at the Sun's equator. The #terminator causes the next Sunspot Cycle to blossom.

The BrightPoint density for 2021 showed a bald patch of BrightPoints at the Sun's equator that varied a lot over the year - until December 13, 2021. Will show you something cool about the bald patches later. We've been waiting on that big drop.

Since the middle [May/June] of 2021 we've watched the Sun try to shed Sunspot Cycle 24's Hale Cycle. This drop in BrightPoint density has spread all around the Sun - as can be seen in this image - and will finally complete its trip in the coming rotations.

The interplay of the bald patches at the equator and the growth of #SunspotCycle25 at mid-latitudes can be seen in the Sunspot Number variation...... see it?

and through the f10.7 solar radio flux as it finally passed the 90SFU monthly threshold...... and then we might start ti understand @eelcodoornbos wonderful plot of the other day!

and so @DarrinDazz and @frankmhowell and @hfsolar1 and others are keen to see what this all means for the amplitude of #SunspotCycle25 - this means about 10 years and 10 months separation between the last two #terminators

and @NCAR_Science wants to know why #SunspotCycle25 has been steadily outperforming the consensus forecast.

helioforecast.space/solarcycle

so does spaceweather.com

For those of you that have followed our work you know that the upcoming sunspot cycle is a result of how Hale Cycles interact - the separation of the terminators appearing to be a very good proxy for the strength of the Sunspot Cycle to come.

@rickyegeland prepared this plot earlier to illustrate what the arrival of #terminator means for our forecast of #SunspotCycle25

The green line showing that we anticipate #SunspotCycle25 to be above average still. For those of you that may be disappointed by this news - that's still bigger than Cycle 24 and more like 23.......

Over the coming weeks - and we've likely seen some of the post-terminator action in the STEREO-A observations of the last few days - we anticipate some X-Flares to occur.

What does all of this mean? There's sufficient contrast between our forecast and those developed using more traditional, yet 'physics-based,' models of the Sun's internal magnetic machine that one has to ask - what's really going on inside the Sun!!

Time will tell if the Sun follows this path to an above average Sunspot Cycle 25. You can follow along with us here: helioforecast.space/solarcycle and if you want to learn a bit more, here: link.springer.com/article/10.100…

With a shout out to @hfsolar1 who has been with us, learning along the way. Hope you find strength in the coming days, weeks and months!