Tren Griffin Profile picture
I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta.

Jan 16, 2022, 6 tweets

1/ Understanding why SpaceX's Starlink constellation currently has ~1,800 active and soon to be active satellites and the OneWeb constellation currently has fewer requires that you examine the inherent trade offs given the physics of wireless and how that impacts unit economics.

2/ OneWeb's higher orbit means fewer satellites and gateways are required to cover the Earth and this reduces system costs, but higher orbit translates to a worse link budget which means the signal isn't as strong as in lower orbit. To learn more: itu.int/en/ITU-R/space…

3/ "I don't care" you say. "When do I get the Starlink terminal I ordered?" The issue usually for people in the northern US now is capacity not coverage. There's only so much capacity in a cell and it is shared. Will capacity increase over time? Yes, but it is not unlimited.

4/ Wireless of any kind is most valuable when the user is mobile or the economics of fiber or cable break. At a point there isn't enough density and income to support a wired connection. You can see this in the cable/fiber footprint. Cable won't service some homes even in cities.

5/ Mobile users are willing to pay more for capacity.

"At current pricing, a typical fixed wireless access customer generates about $50 of revenue per month, or about $0.10 per GB. An unlimited mobile customer generates $48 per month, or about $4.36 per GB." MoffettNathanson

6/ How do satellite constellations get more capacity? Inverse square law! Make the satellites bigger enabling more power from more solar cells, because there are no electrical outlets in space. Gen 2 satellites will therefore be heavier. What do bigger Gen 2 satellites need? BFR!

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