Tren Griffin Profile picture
I work for Microsoft. Previously I was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm established by Craig McCaw. I am on the board of directors of Kymeta.
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May 22 5 tweets 3 min read
"I have been using the early 80s as a bit of a mental model. The early 80s had a double dip recession (one in 1980 and another in 1981 and 1982).I suspect we are either in a recession right now that could easily last until the end of 2023."

Fred Wilson… The global economy in 1980 had challenges. I recall IBM visiting Microsoft in Seattle that summer to discuss its then secret plan to build a personal computer like it was yesterday. It was a fantastic time to be creating valuable software. That hasn't changed since then. Image
May 18 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ Warren Buffett:
“Interest rates are to asset prices what gravity is to the apple. When there are low interest rates, there is a very low gravitational pull on asset prices.”
“The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates." 2/ "If interest rates are destined to be at low levels. it makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield. Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back."
May 15 4 tweets 2 min read
A subscription to the New York Times Crossword is $6.95 per month.

What's the likely lifetime value (LTV) of a monthly subscriber?

You know average revenue per user (ARPU). What are likely churn, COGS and CAC?

What comparable businesses give you clues to compute LTV? "Value of a business = value per customer x number of current and future customers"

The value of a subscription business is a function of customer economics and the current and future users (market size).…
May 15 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ "Peloton is expected to burn through approximately $500 million of its cash flow during the next quarter. This means that Peloton — even after getting a $750 million loan — only has enough cash on hand to survive three quarters at the current burn rate."… 2/ Since CAC it is paid up front that means is cash going out the door of the seller in month one of the customer relationship. David Skok explains the cash flow issue with an example. X spends $6,000 to acquire each customer is billing them at the rate of $500 per month.
May 6 7 tweets 3 min read
1/ "Dish lost about 462,000 satellite and vMVPD subscribers in Q1, more than double the 230,000 it lost in the prior year. Satellite losses of 228,000 customers were significantly higher than consensus estimates of a loss of 140,000 subscribers."… 2/ "Dish’s retail satellite TV business is losing subscribers, revenues, and EBITDA and their retail Wireless business isn’t just losing subscribers (rapidly), its EBITDA has actually turned negative."

May 6 13 tweets 5 min read
1/ The pandemic is a convenient smoke screen for the "own goals" causing current chip supply problems. Covid did make them worse.


Volkswagen: "semiconductor chip supply will only be able to meet demand from 2024 onwards."… 2/  Current chip shortages were caused by a perfect storm of factors.  Prior to 2020, there were already problems with inputs for production, including semiconductor manufacturing equipment used to make older varieties of chips, capacitors, and substrates.… Image
Apr 30 30 tweets 6 min read
Here we go. BRK 2022 Tweetstorm.

Buffett: "Berkshire is stronger than any bank. There's no reason for a Berkshire subsidiary to have a bank line."

Some Berkshire subsidiaries do have bank lines, but that's because the local bankers need something to do. Buffett: "I've been following Allegheny for 60 years. I knew we would buy Allegheny at the right price."

"The markets sometimes are quite investment-oriented. At other times they are a casino. Banks make money when people do things and they take a piece of that."
Apr 30 4 tweets 2 min read
When Charlie Munger grabs peanut brittle on the stage today think of it like a baseball pitcher using the rosin bag. It is a tell that he is about to deliver a zinger.… "Berkshire’s stock buybacks slowed down to $3.2 billion from $6.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021, BRK's operating earnings — which encompass profits made from the myriad of businesses like insurance, railroads and utilities — were flat year over year at $7.04 billion."
Apr 25 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ The "iPhone will enable messaging via satellite" rumor that will not die is back:…
Possible: a bundled iPhone messaging service that works outdoors where LEO phones have had service (eg SPOT). Limited number of texts allowed. No mobile operator involved. Globalstar has a potential counterparty that "is required to reimburse 95% of the capital expenditures and certain other costs incurred for the new satellites.” That counterparty is probably AAPL. Whether Apple will pull a trigger and offer satellite messaging service is unknown.
Apr 21 4 tweets 2 min read
"Elon Musk noted some suppliers are requesting 20% to 30% cost increases for parts from 2021 to 2022, well above the 8.5% inflation rate reported by Labor Department data on Tuesday."… "Tesla's own factories have been running below capacity for several quarters as supply chain became the main limiting factor, which is likely to continue through the rest of 2022,” it said in a letter to shareholders.…
Apr 16 4 tweets 2 min read
Twitter adopting a poison pill has caused the national average price for a dozen large eggs to rise to almost three times what it was this time last year.

"Poisoned birds don't lay eggs" said Maurice Fowl who paid $4.79 for a dozen cage-free eggs.… ".We were already seeing higher egg prices because of the normal issues all farms are experiencing today – supply chain issues, lack of packaging, the labor market." Poison pill now.

When asked to comment Father Guido Sarducci said: “Economics? Supply and Demand. That’s it.'” Image
Apr 16 4 tweets 3 min read
Steve Jobs: "VisiCalc was what really drove -- propelled -- the Apple II to the success it achieved."

What VisiCalc (Visual Calculator) did was drive demand by business users. Before then, PC users were mostly hobbyists. This success motivated the IBM PC. Bill Gates: "We wrote a lot of applications that ran on the Apple II. The SoftCard helped the Apple II a great deal. Decathlon Software. Multiplan software. It was a good relationship. But mostly, we were selling to their customers."… Image
Apr 12 5 tweets 2 min read
1/ Lots of satellite news lately. On old saying is that a war is good for the satellite business.… 2/ Russia has two optical reconnaissance satellites in orbit ... the maximum resolution of the Persona satellites is believed to be 50 centimeters per pixel.…
Apr 11 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ April 11, 1976

''Every computer before the 'Apple I' had that front panel of switches and lights. Every computer since has had a keyboard and a screen."

"The Apple 1 was the first computer to look like a typewriter." Steve Wozniak Image 2/ Woz was inspired to create the Apple 1 after attending the first meeting of the Homebrew Computer Club on March 5, 1975. Also present at that first meeting was the Altair 8800 microcomputer made by MITS that ran Microsoft's Altair BASIC software. Image
Mar 17 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ Internet service providers in Ukraine are working hard and effectively to keep the country as connected as possible:… 2/ "Starlink can provide connectivity by creating a personal hotspot for people who are in the vicinity of the device. So this is very useful for journalists, for resistance groups or the elected government.'"…
Feb 26 8 tweets 3 min read
1/ Teaching, like writing, has helped me develop and clarify my own thoughts. Charlie calls this phenomenon the orangutan effect."…

That AAPL basis tho. 2/"If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will yourself exit thinking more clearly."

If you can't write it down, you haven't thought it through.
Feb 24 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ March 14, 1980—Microsoft announces BASIC Compiler for the TRS-80, which will run on a Radio Shack Model I TRS-80 with one disk drive and 48K RAM. Includes two diskettes containing BASIC Compiler and runtime library and LINK-80 linking loader and an instruction manual. $195.00 2/ While Microsoft had licensed Unix from Western Electric the previous month, Microsoft wasn't yet selling operating systems in March 1980.

The first meeting with IBM took place four months later on July 22, 1980. The focus of Microsoft would shift from 8-bit to 16-bit.
Feb 20 6 tweets 3 min read
1/ Being on a board of directors with @wolfejosh has been an amazingly enjoyable and educational experience. He's always prepared, informed, contributes and has fun.

Josh believes: "edge can derive from informational, analytical or behavioral sources."… 2/ If you work on a team that runs a business you can acquire an edge versus people who only invest and don't have your source of edge.

"To make money, you must find something that nobody else knows, or do something that others won’t do."

Peter Lynch…
Feb 19 50 tweets 10 min read
1/ Charlie Munger: "We invested money in China. I feel about Russia the way Gundlach feels about China. I don’t invest in Russia so I can’t criticize Gundlach’s point of view. I reached a different conclusion. If he’s nervous, he doesn’t have to join us."… 2/ "On balance, we prefer the risks we have to those we’re avoiding and we don’t mind a tiny little bit of margin debt. When you buy Alibaba, you do get sort of a derivative. But assuming there’s a reasonable honor among civilized nations, that risk doesn’t seem that big to me."
Feb 3 4 tweets 2 min read
1/ Informing a reader by telling stories is the approach taken in this new book on venture capital. It's is easier to convey an idea like:

"Venture capital is not even a home-run business. It's a grand-slam business." Bill Gurley

if you tell a story.… 2/ Free book excerpt at:…

"Most people think improbable ideas are unimportant, but the only thing that's important is something that's improbable."

Don't pitch an incremental category that is: "one sheet of toilet paper, not two."…
Feb 2 4 tweets 2 min read
"Starlink Premium users can expect download speeds of 150-500 Mbps and latency of 20-40ms, enabling high throughput connectivity for small offices, storefronts, and super users across the globe" This is a new Starlink service apparently aimed at non-residential customers.