Thread by @althecat

Ethiopia has some incoming, unseasonal, rain forecast. This is a 72 hour forecast from the latest GFS model.

And not just Ethiopia. Further south in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania significantly more rain is forecast.

Thread....

This 24 hour animation shows two causes. On the right there is a large area of active convection in the Indian Ocean which is producing atmospheric moisture which is flowing into the horn over Somalia.

Simultaneously the East African Monsoon is having a burst of activity pushing north into South Sudan and South West Ethiopia.

Here is another model forecast this time from the Korean KMA model for rainfall over the next 12 days. Most of this falls in the next three however.

South of the border northern, drought affected areas in Kenya are also expected to receive rain and some are already doing so.

Here we see north west Kenya and Uganda. The later has had some very large storms overnight.

And here is a 117 hour rainfall forecast for Kenya, Uganda and Northern Tanzania.

240hr (10 day) accumulating rainfall forecasts covering most of the horn. So far most of Somalia missing out but Eritrea is expected to get some rain also.

Finally this is a forecast for water transport activity in the region over a 16 day period. It shows a fairly consistent roughly circular flow of water centered over Yemen. It would be nice if drought stricken Somalia could benefit from this a little.