Thread by @therealarod1984

1/16 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* We may know after today if 1/8 or 1/11 is our positivity rate peak
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* We are easily on pace for the 1/26 hospitalization peak I'm predicting

1/n

1/16 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected< 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/6:
* Pos rate 32.00%
* 1/8 peak mentioned last week appears to be re-forming
* 1/11 could also be peak, not enough testing in to say for certain
* Testing about to go 200K+ per day

2/n
.

1/16 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 51K
* With testing & positives still increasing, probably some growth for cases still out there. Positives in 2/n are rising into the mid 60s, so some case growth into the mid 50s is likely
*
3/n

1/16 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* Admits 7DMA rate of growth down to 21.7%. You can see a crest forming
* SETRAC (Houston area) Admits in full decline
* Houston Hospitalizations 7DMA growth at 18%. Other major metros peaked a litter later, but they also in steep decline
.
4/n

1/16 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* % beds tagged as Covid around 19.6%
* Census +49 beds from yesterday. Last Sun was +69
* Hospitalization growth down to 34%
* Continues to be a very steep and short wave. Still feeling good that 7DMA peaks by 1/26.

4/n

1/6 Hospitalizations - Part 3

* ICU census at 2427 & a little ahead of 2020 Winter pace. If growth indeed is losing steam, we may see 2021 Winter not approach 2020's peak
* Vents, you can see a crest forming as well. TBD if it will ever catch 2020's pace, much less peak

6/n
.

1/16 Conclusion

* 2 days ago I predicted Texas 7DMA Hospitalization peak by 1/26/22. Feeling pretty good about that date, looking at the data
* My goal in a prediction is to demonstrate how awful our paid public health establishment is at data or modeling. #randoontwitter

6/end