My argument regarding Russia's behavior:
1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence
2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities
3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation
fpri.org/article/2022/0…
Ukraine currently lacks a strong long-range fires capability. If they acquire that, they will have stronger conventional deterrence vis-à-vis Russia and could strike Russian cities. So a military escalation would be more costly for Moscow in the future than now. 2/
If they use force, Russia will use it to achieve political goals and inflict pain on Ukraine to alter their incentives. This could be done by destroying military units, inflicting casualties, taking PoWs, and degrading their ability to defend against future escalations. 3/
Russia could possibly achieve this by using its standoff fires capability or conducting a limited ground offensive, which would either involve a planned withdrawal (possibly with POWs) or with Russian forces outside Kyiv. A large-scale, long-term occupation is unlikely. 4/
These military options would be less costly and risky for Russia than a large-scale occupation, which could also affect their view of the costs and benefits. In addition, deliveries of Javelins and Stingers are unlikely to affect the outcome or serve as a strong deterrent. 5/
A key question is how much pain does Putin believe he has to inflict on Ukraine to sufficiently alter Zelensky's perception of the cost and benefits of agreeing to Russia's demands? I think Putin accepted that he may have to use force when he authorized the buildup in the fall.6/
Even if NATO agrees to some of Russia's concessions, that won't solve Russia's most pressing problem: a hostile Ukraine that is rearming. Ukraine is developing longer-range missiles domestically, which is still a red line for Moscow even if they aren't provided by NATO. 7/
I think a military escalation is more likely than not at this point. Russia was hoping it could compel the US to force Kyiv to make concessions. That hasn't happened, so Russia will likely use military force to compel Ukraine to make concessions. 8/
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