Thread by @john_lichfield

Weekly French Covid Thread

A confusing week. Omicron infections have rocketed again – partly perhaps because a sub-variant of “O” has invaded France.
Nonetheless, the government has announced a timetable for gradual relaxation of social protections from 2 Feb.

1/12

The shedding of controls, such as working-from-home and max numbers for restos etc, may seem risky with cases running at 400,000+ a day for last 3 days. It’s based on accumulating evidence that Omicron is much less dangerous than other versions of C19. It's also electoral.
2/12

The electoral motive is not just my assessment. (1st round of voting in Pres election is 79 days away). Govt officials speak of a need to “give Fr people” a perspective that restrictions are about to decline. Pr. Macron will formally enter the race soon – prob early Feb. 3/12

In other words, this is another calculated gamble by President Macron. The last – refusing a fourth lockdown in December– has paid off so far. Pressure on acute care is actually going down for the first time since Oct.
4/12

But the immediate outlook is uncertain. There is evidence that a new form of Omicron, a variant of a variant, is spreading in Denmark, Belgium and now France. The subvariant – Omicron BA.2 – is harder to identify with existing tests. It has been nicknamed “furtive Omicron”. 5/12

So far O2 seems no more damaging than O1, which we should perhaps now call “nothing-to-hide” Omicron. Experts fear that it may explain the renewed surge of cases in France. In any case the Scientific Council warns that talk of an early end to the Covid saga is premature. 6/12

The good news is that the previous Delta wave has finally abated – no more than 10,000 cases a day, 4% of the total (see graph). Omicron shows signs of peaking, even falling, in some areas, incl greater Paris. Map shows Savoie, Lyon and Toulouse are now worst afflicted. 7/12

The new timetable announced by PM Jean Castex last night was as follows:
The tougher “vaccine pass” will apply from Mon (24 Jan) unless the Constitutional Council rejects it today. Newly vaccinated people can have a pass until 15 Feb if they take daily tests. 8/12

Castex contd.
From 2 Feb, no more requirement for 3 days home working or limits on numbers in public places. End of outdoor mask wearing.
From 16 Feb, night clubs and stand-up concerts no longer banned. 9/12

This week’s stats: New cases are running at 337,192 a day (and rising) compared to just under 300,000 a week ago. The @Nicolasberrod chart shows clearly how the Omicron wave paused and then accelerated again. 10/12

BUT…as of last night there were “only” 3,842 C19 cases in acute care, 3% down on last week. Daily intake to acute care has fallen by 15%. Deaths are 4% up at 216 a day.
11/12

Almost 80% (79.7%) of the whole population is now first-vaxxed (53,731,886 people). But the daily rate of booster or 3rd jabs has fallen below 400,000 a day. Complacency?
Hang in there.
12/12