A confusing week. Omicron infections have rocketed again – partly perhaps because a sub-variant of “O” has invaded France.
Nonetheless, the government has announced a timetable for gradual relaxation of social protections from 2 Feb.
1/12
The shedding of controls, such as working-from-home and max numbers for restos etc, may seem risky with cases running at 400,000+ a day for last 3 days. It’s based on accumulating evidence that Omicron is much less dangerous than other versions of C19. It's also electoral.
2/12
The electoral motive is not just my assessment. (1st round of voting in Pres election is 79 days away). Govt officials speak of a need to “give Fr people” a perspective that restrictions are about to decline. Pr. Macron will formally enter the race soon – prob early Feb. 3/12
In other words, this is another calculated gamble by President Macron. The last – refusing a fourth lockdown in December– has paid off so far. Pressure on acute care is actually going down for the first time since Oct.
4/12
But the immediate outlook is uncertain. There is evidence that a new form of Omicron, a variant of a variant, is spreading in Denmark, Belgium and now France. The subvariant – Omicron BA.2 – is harder to identify with existing tests. It has been nicknamed “furtive Omicron”. 5/12
So far O2 seems no more damaging than O1, which we should perhaps now call “nothing-to-hide” Omicron. Experts fear that it may explain the renewed surge of cases in France. In any case the Scientific Council warns that talk of an early end to the Covid saga is premature. 6/12
The good news is that the previous Delta wave has finally abated – no more than 10,000 cases a day, 4% of the total (see graph). Omicron shows signs of peaking, even falling, in some areas, incl greater Paris. Map shows Savoie, Lyon and Toulouse are now worst afflicted. 7/12
The new timetable announced by PM Jean Castex last night was as follows:
The tougher “vaccine pass” will apply from Mon (24 Jan) unless the Constitutional Council rejects it today. Newly vaccinated people can have a pass until 15 Feb if they take daily tests. 8/12
Castex contd.
From 2 Feb, no more requirement for 3 days home working or limits on numbers in public places. End of outdoor mask wearing.
From 16 Feb, night clubs and stand-up concerts no longer banned. 9/12
This week’s stats: New cases are running at 337,192 a day (and rising) compared to just under 300,000 a week ago. The @Nicolasberrod chart shows clearly how the Omicron wave paused and then accelerated again. 10/12
BUT…as of last night there were “only” 3,842 C19 cases in acute care, 3% down on last week. Daily intake to acute care has fallen by 15%. Deaths are 4% up at 216 a day.
11/12
Almost 80% (79.7%) of the whole population is now first-vaxxed (53,731,886 people). But the daily rate of booster or 3rd jabs has fallen below 400,000 a day. Complacency?
Hang in there.
12/12
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
There was a 3rd night of rioting – the worst so far – in multi-racial suburbs across France after a 17 years old boy was shot dead in the Paris suburbs by a traffic cop on Tuesday am. The dead boy, Nahel, 17, was driving a bright yellow Mercedes registered in Poland. In Poland?1/
The Polish reg of the car has been little commented in the French media. It is, in fact, not so strange. For several years there has been an on-line rental business of doubtful legality renting Polish-reg Mercs and Porsches to young men in the French “banlieues”. 2/
The expensive cars are often used in “rodeos” – demonstrations of wheelies and other edgy driving skills – in suburban housing estates. They are rented on-line for between Euros 300 and Euros 3,000 a day. 3/
A strange week. Having plunged from a great height, the average number of Covid cases has increased for five days in a row. The running average is now 54,372 - about 2% up on last week. 1/6
A very similar pattern can be seen in the UK (see @nicolasberrod graph). I’ve seen no clear explanation. Is it the fault of the BA.2 sub variant of Omicron, now over 50% of Fr cases? Or just the effect of a loosening of restrictions? 2/6
Either way, the government seems unconcerned (so far) and expects warmer Spring weather will squash the rebound. Acute care cases/deaths continue to fall sharply. The vaccine pass/indoor masks (except in public transport/care homes) will be suspended from Monday as planned. 3/6
I’m reliably told there is a good (or bad) reason why Priti Patel and Boris Johnson refuse to allow Ukrainian refugees to apply for UK visas when they arrive in Calais. The reason? To block legal applications by asylum-seekers from other countries. 1/8
Someone who has been directly involved in UK visa operations in the past points out to me that any UK visa office in Calais would, in theory, be open to non-Ukrainian applicants (ie the Calais boat people from Afghanistan, Syria and elsewhere|).
2/8
They could go to the Calais UK visa office and submit an asylum application. That’s the last thing the Home Office wants, I’m told. It would expose the cynicism and hypocrisy of Patel’s “two-tier” borders policy. 3/8
A good week. The 5th (or some say 6th) wave of Covid is now falling fast.
Infections – 98.9% Omicron – have dropped by one fifth in 7 days.
They are still averaging 274,352 a day, however. Acute cases and deaths, though stable, remain very high. 1/10
The government started to remove social restrictions, as planned, on Wed of this week. No more limits on numbers in stadiums, theatres etc. No more compulsory home working or masks outdoors. From 16 Feb, clubs can reopen. Standing in bars and eating on trains can resume. 2/10
The health minister Olivier Véran said yesterday: “the worst is behind us”. Rules on testing in schools would probably be eased from next week, he said. The vaccine pass may be scrapped before its promised end in July.
Hmm... just before the April elections? 3/10
Weekly French Covid Thread
The Omicron pandemic is raging but rising less rapidly; Delta is declining slowly (see Covidtracker graphic). Overall, there are reasons to hope that a plateau will be reached next week. In France as elsewhere, Omicron is causing less acute illness 1/10
Omicron is now 90% of new cases in France, up from 80% last week. Together the variants are producing an average of 293,867 cases a day – a 47% increase on last week, after 64% the week before. But (good news alert) acute care and deaths are “only” 5% and 3% up.
2/10
There is some push-back against Fr govt's handling of the pandemic. Teachers went on strike against school mask/testing rules and won concessions. The Senate has delayed the move from “health pass” to vaccine pass. Outdoor masks in Paris have been struck down by a tribunal. 3/10
The public prosecutor for the Annecy area says she is surprised by the global media reaction to the announcement that a man has been arrested for questioning for the 9 years old al-Hilli murders. Surprised? Really? 1/2
Prosecutor Line Bonnet-Mathis says it's an arrest like many others. "No cause to get excited. We're going to say nothing about the person being questioned. We've already had one suicide after an arrest in this case...I will give no clue to the person's identity or address." 2/2
The arrested man has been identified by his lawyer as a motorcyclist who was questioned in 2015, three years after the killings, and cleared of suspicion at the time. Now gendarmerie detectives want to clear up discrepancies in his story.