Thread by @RyanBLindsay

With some of the talk around CPL players drawing attention from MLS sides, I thought I’d take a quick look at a player that looks to be on the move to #TFClive now - Lukas MacNaughton.

An attribute that stands out consistently in MacNaughton’s game is his aerial ability in defensive situations. Last season, MacNaughton had 30 headed clearances, with his physicality playing a big part in that success.

This physicality also allows him to put attackers off, even when he is not able to win the header - an issue not faced all too often by MacNaughtan as he won 71.1% of his aerial duels in 2021.

However, MacNaughtan can be prone to mis-reading the flight of a ball and mistiming his header/over-committing, leading to chances for the opposition, both from central positions and from wide crosses.

MacNaughtan can also lose track of players in behind (above),+ back off of attackers at times allowing for space for an opportunity. Here he is dropping off & allowing Pozuelo too much space to receive & shoot:

His physicality also leads MacNaughtan to put himself in front of shots often, with the CB racking up 17 defensive blocks in ‘21. Here is an example where he tracks the ball well to get himself in position to block:

MacNaughtan also looks to advance the ball through progressive passes & runs. He contributed 9 key passes & was successful in 80% of his 0.38 dribbles/game in ‘21. He is selective, but effective when he finds his opportunity to drive the ball forward-leading to moments like this:

Looking at the last CB to make the jump from the CPL to MLS, Joel Waterman, MacNaughtan’s 2021 season stacks up pretty well in many areas compared to Waterman’s last season w/Cavalry:

As seen above, both players were reliable on the ball, & were able to maintain positive contributions on defense, w/ both winning over 60% of their defensive duels. As well, both looked to play forward at a similar rate.

MacNaughtan was better in the air & more selective+successful w/his dribbles, while Waterman held a slight edge in clearances, blocks, & interceptions/90.

Like MacNaughtan, Waterman can tend to mis-judge space, over-commit, and lose attackers behind him, so these weaknesses in MacNaughtan’s game aren’t necessarily a barrier to his progression to a higher level, like MLS.

Here is another example:

Comparing Waterman’s last season with Cavalry (2019) to his first season playing over 1000 mins with CF Montreal (2021), we saw roughly a 20% drop-off in some of his key defensive stats. Here are 3 such statistics highlighted.

If we were to round up and apply these drop-off %s to MacNaughtan’s 2021 CPL stats to get a ballpark idea of how he *may* fit into MLS play, we see fairly comparable numbers to Waterman’s, w/ an advantage remaining in headed duel wins.

For comparison, here are those same 3 metrics from 3 of TFC’s CBs in '21.

By these numbers, MacNaughtan looks set to develop into a dependable depth player at #TFClive. Of course, there are always exceptions to “rules” & he may well exceed or underperform these rough projections.
But, by the Waterman benchmark, he looks set to contribute reliably.🇨🇦⚽️

All CPL data from @canpldata! And all MLS data from MLSsoccer.com/stats!

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