Solar PV is picking up steam again!
2018 and 2019 where timid with just 9% growth per year. But 2020, 2021 and 2022* (*expected) pick up the pace again with 22%, 27% and 25%. That is close to the average over 1977-2022 of 32% yearly growth.
about.bnef.com/blog/solar-10-…
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I would like to add that @solar_chase is openly calling her team "cowards" (tongue in cheek) for being conservative. She's claiming 2021 will probably still go up (maybe even to 200 GW).
I think their prognosis for 2022-2030 is probably also conservative again.
Maybe I can remind people that I've been saying and illustrating this since 2007 by pointing out the difference between reality and the "not predictions" of the IEA. But everybody falls victim to this conservatism in order to be taken seriously.
My best guess echoes the mantra of @MLiebreich (founder of @BloombergNEF): "trrrrrust the learning curve". And that is nowhere near to stopping, even though many people expect that (see pictures).
techtricity.substack.com/p/breaking-dow…
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
The price of PV modules is just a part of the picture by the way. A proper way to look at such learning curves also includes: installation; sector coupling (heat/industry) and storage for when the sun doesn't shine (batteries/P2X).
See e.g. @ChristianOnRE sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
But I think we will see growth of solar PV at rates of ~25% for a while yet.
I don't know yet how it will transform our energy system (hence my work with NEONresearch.nl, Zenmo.com and @TUeindhoven) but I'm sure the transformation will be radical and swift!
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