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AukeHoekstra Profile picture
@AukeHoekstra
Jan 27, 2022 • 6 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Solar PV is picking up steam again!

2018 and 2019 where timid with just 9% growth per year. But 2020, 2021 and 2022* (*expected) pick up the pace again with 22%, 27% and 25%. That is close to the average over 1977-2022 of 32% yearly growth.
about.bnef.com/blog/solar-10-…

🧵
I would like to add that @solar_chase is openly calling her team "cowards" (tongue in cheek) for being conservative. She's claiming 2021 will probably still go up (maybe even to 200 GW).

I think their prognosis for 2022-2030 is probably also conservative again.
Maybe I can remind people that I've been saying and illustrating this since 2007 by pointing out the difference between reality and the "not predictions" of the IEA. But everybody falls victim to this conservatism in order to be taken seriously.
My best guess echoes the mantra of @MLiebreich (founder of @BloombergNEF): "trrrrrust the learning curve". And that is nowhere near to stopping, even though many people expect that (see pictures).
techtricity.substack.com/p/breaking-dow…
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
The price of PV modules is just a part of the picture by the way. A proper way to look at such learning curves also includes: installation; sector coupling (heat/industry) and storage for when the sun doesn't shine (batteries/P2X).
See e.g. @ChristianOnRE sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
But I think we will see growth of solar PV at rates of ~25% for a while yet.

I don't know yet how it will transform our energy system (hence my work with NEONresearch.nl, Zenmo.com and @TUeindhoven) but I'm sure the transformation will be radical and swift!

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More from @AukeHoekstra

AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jun 17
The official report on the blackout in Spain and Portugal is just released. I'll give a quick summary of findings and provide some additional info.

TL;DR
conventional power plants didn't control the voltage as planned
over-voltage caused renewables to turn off as required
The report (of which only press reports are available) points the finger to

1 conventional backup plant taken offline for maintenance without replacement being arranged

9 other conventional backup plants, of which every one had a degree of non-compliance
uk.news.yahoo.com/spain-reveals-…
Renewables also had a role: "tension was very high and sustained, causing the disconnection of generators".


An inside source tells me the voltage went above 110% in many places and solar was required to switch off, which meant 8GW was lost all at once.elpais.com/economia/2025-…
Read 5 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jun 10
Just made a visualization for myself about the unprecedented growth in solar that I thought I might share.

From 1880 to 1950 all electricity came from fossil+hydro. Then nuclear briefly grew with market share increasing with up to 1% per year in 1985.

Now solar takes over. Image
I've described in more detail in a substack post:

There's more info on each picture there.aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/the-coming-s…
I made this picture because I think you forget what is happening when you look at total final energy. Renewables seem so tiny! Image
Read 8 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jun 9
I see this a lot:

Conservatives who *just know* that nuclear is better than solar and thus blame their favorite scapegoat *the government* for solar doing better.

But in reality it's the opposite: the market likes solar so much that not even the government can save nuclear.
I guess Andre's attention for me is due to my being irritated at his fact free diatribes of pseudo-scientific nonsense:


So now he sees reacting to me as a way to get attention?
And I'm reacting again, so maybe I'm being duped?
Anyhow...
Let's start with some quantifiable facts. (Things this conservative armchair energy philosopher is allergic to.)
First thing we notice is that solar and wind are clearly surpassing nuclear (though the new leadership of the department of energy denies it).
Image
Read 19 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
May 18
Many people think solar and wind won't be able to keep the grid stable because they lack "inertia".

I think solar, wind and batteries will do a BETTER job and I think you can explain it thus:
- the old grid is a record player
- the new grid a digital player
🧵 Image
If you play vinyl records, the rotating mass of the turntable is used to keep the speed steady. This leads some vinyl enthusiasts to seek more mass because that will keep things more steady.

This turntable by Excel audio attaches a separate mass. (Overkill but makes my point.) Image
In the same way the inertia in the rotors of current power plants helps the grid to keep a steady 50 Hz (in e.g. Europe) or 60 Hz (in e.g. the US) frequency.

These machines turn a heavy copper coil wound around a heavy iron core and this helps keep the grid frequency steady. Image
Read 21 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Aug 13, 2024
Great to see more and more attention for flexible grid pricing.

We must say goodbye to the "copper plate" that offers free power everywhere and every time. It's hideously expensive and outdated.

What we need is smart flexibility.
🧵
The underlying reason is that the costs of different components of the energy system changed:

Some remained high (e.g. pylons, fossil & nuclear)

Some plummeted (e.g. solar, wind, batteries, EVs & inverters)

Some became possible at all (e.g. measuring & steering in real time)
So now we should make good use of these new, clean, abundant and affordable options, even if it means doing things a bit differently than before.

So what should we do different regarding grid congestion pricing?
Read 20 tweets
AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Jul 28, 2024
Some are angry about the "anti-Christian depiction of the last supper" at the Olympic Opening ceremony. (@elonmusk and @realDonaldTrump among others)

A Dutch art historian explains it's not the last supper but a Dutch painting of the Olympic gods.
And I explain what I loved.
🧵
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Original Dutch thread here. I just translated it.


@WSchoonenberg shows that the "tableau vivant" (living painting) is depicting "The Feast of the Gods" by Jan van Bijlert, from 1635.
Image
The heathen Gods have gathered on mount Olympus for a feast. Sun god Apollo is recognizable by his halo, Bacchus (Dionysus) by the grapes, Neptune (Poseidon) by his trident, Diana (Artemis) by the moon, Venus (Aphrodite) by Cupid.


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Read 24 tweets

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