Thread by @cogitoiam

BJP's well thought out pause with ADMK

1. Since taking over, Anna has openly declared motto of winning 150 seats in 2026. Though ambitious, accepting a mere 5-10% seat share in local body, would seriously dent the credibility of this goal & any further agenda BJP tries to set.

2. Advances BJP's goal to contest a minimum of 15 seats in 2024. Accepting meager share today would mean BJP is still in 2-3% party status. After 21 elections, 4 MLAs, Anna's growing stature, BJP has solid support base in range of 10-12%, only lacking org to convert it to votes.

When your base is expanding exponentially, why agree as though you are still a 2-3% party? and in that process sabotage 2024? BJP's posture of going alone will help in bargaining for a good 12-15 seats in 2024.

3. It doesn't affect 2024 alliance chances. EPS/OPS are not in a position to deny alliance in 2024, in what is Modi/Shah's personal battle. If they deny alliance in 24 and Modi comes back, rest assured they will lose two leaves symbol,

party will get raided by BJP politically and lose Delhi protection in the cases DMK wants to bury them in. So going alone today has no bearing on ADMK's need to ally with BJP in 2024.

4. ADMK going alone will realise it has shrunk very much to a party of two dominant castes. BJP alliance in 21, helped give it a Hindu alliance image and consolidated a lot of castes ADMK didnt distribute seats for.

The minority vote isn't coming back to ADMK, with BJP potentially cutting 10% Hindu vote, ADMK can come no where near challenging DMK. They will realize this hard truth and offer BJP a far better deal in 24.

5. Boost for Anna's image. BJP is attracting serious amount of youth after Anna's elevation. Their entry link is Anna's charisma and connect. Going subordinate to an old party run by 65+ year men will affects this and leaves the youth icon space to Seeman or Vijay in future.

BJP is now free to project the machismo and hero stature of Anna to retain the youth vote. TN's political culture is one of hero worship and being subordinate to ADMK old foxes was not the way to build a hero of the future.

6. Only challenge for DMK was the combined, strength of NDA, now that is is broken, DMK will treat Congress as expendable as Jothimani showed yesterday. Congress losing bargaining power and seats in TN is good for BJP nationally. Punctures any claim of Rahul Gandhi for PM.

7. An obvious opportunity for BJP to strengthen their booth level grassroots, ensure faces at every nook & corner, develop organizational capacity to convert the 10-12% pro BJP minded voters they have into actual votes.

Anna & BJP have performed the break in a smooth manner, such that the ADMK voter is not offended. BJP's target now is to convert anti DMK sentiment driven ADMK voters to its own. This process will continue unabated as only the ADMK partymen had delusions about BJP being a burden.

But the ADMK voter is more often than not a nationalist, theist, this silent anti DMK voter base is already moving towards nationalism and could be persuaded to view BJP as the primary anti DMK force. The decision to go alone in local body will help build towards that. #BJP #ADMK