Thread by @orwell2022

1/ Mortality ranking update.

Find here a graph that includes more countries.

This time using mortality.org raw data to calculate the Age Standardised Mortality Rate (ASMR).

2019 means 1st Aug 2019 - 31st July 2020.
2020 means 1st Aug 2020 - 31st July 2021.

2/ Using mortality.org as source is less accurate as only one large 15-64 bin is available for this band. That creates a bias which underestimates the ASMR. For emerging countries (life expectancy <65), such a large bin is far too wide.

3/ The overlay shows effect. Standardising with large bins, creates a bias which underestimates the ASMR.

What we did here
orwell2024.substack.com/p/age-adjusted…
is therefore more accurate as done on 5 year bins systematically.

4/ Israel is an artifact. The population is very young. The error resulting from the use one bin for 15-64 will be even more dominant. If done on 5 year bins (I don't have it), they wouldn't be on place 2 I think.

5/ For the friends in Canada and USA.

Sweden did better.

USA is in a one parameter health (Covid is responsible for everything) panic death spiral it seems.

#TruckersForFreedom @jordanbpeterson

@jordanbpeterson 6/ The ESP2013 adjusted weekly data of the above line chart is shown here.

The flu season is here coloured for an easier understanding of the above.

7/ For the sake of completeness. This is the ESP2013 standard population version adapted and used for mortality.org raw data (broad age bins).

Those weights are then used in the in the yellow highlighted columns on the right hand picture to create the ASMR (green).

8/ The dashboard can be found (and downloaded if you like) here.

public.tableau.com/app/profile/or…

9/ Find here a substack article (and more) on this.

Summary:

𝙄𝙛 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙛𝙤𝙘𝙪𝙨 𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙚𝙛𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙢𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙜𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙣𝙚 𝙘𝙖𝙪𝙨𝙚, 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙢𝙖𝙮 𝙙𝙞𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙠𝙞𝙣𝙙 𝙘𝙖𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙨.

orwell2024.substack.com/p/age-standard…