Noticeable difference between what Ukrainian officials are saying publicly and privately. If Russia wants to have all pieces in place, they'll probably be there in about a week. Then Russia could escalate within hours or days with little public warning.
nytimes.com/2022/02/04/wor…
Personally, I think Zelensky's behavior is rational. By acting as though everything is normal, he's preventing Russian coercion from disrupting the Ukrainian economy or way of life without using military force. But I hope the Ukrainian military is taking appropriate steps. 2/
Presumably, this means another BTG from the 7th Air Assault Division has been moved to Crimea where its 56th Air Assault Regiment is located. It also seems Russia has deployed a number of helicopters to Crimea recently from elsewhere in the Southern Military District. 3/
We've seen Rosgvardia troops deployed in a few areas around Ukraine. In addition, the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in Crimea has also reportedly been alerted. Keep in mind, Russia's naval infantry are used for amphibious operations but also for protecting naval facilities. 4/
I disagree with this. If Russia decides to escalate, it will be very fast and lethal mostly with fires. There's little reason to start small since it gives away surprise. 5/
A number of Serna and other landing craft were spotted in port in Novorossiysk a month or two ago, but there are still fewer there now than in April when the Caspian Flotilla deployed more than 10 landing craft and artillery boats. 6/
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