Thread by @39Magilla

(1) Decoding the RAV4 Sightings, Iteration 2:

Here is my summary of the RAV4 Sightings and closely related events. Please comment, as this is just Iteration 2 of a working theory. I will got through each step in this thread.

(2) Assumptions:

A. Non-perp witnesses mostly correct.
B. Rahmlow tipped Colborn before he was assigned to the case.
C. Ryan/Mike did see the RAV4 on Tuesday night.
D. RAV4 at pond during flyover, but police failed to find it.
E. Pam Sturm was told where to find the RAV4.

(S1.1) Avery/Dassey see Teresa with RAV4 across from the Maroon Van:

This is the starting point, and I drew it with a black background because it is a known and corroborated sighting.

Both Avery and Dassey claim to last see the RAV4 here.

(S1.2) My assumption for this working theory is that Bobby and Scott have arranged for Teresa to take more photos somewhere west of the Avery Auto Salvage Yard.

The location causes one of Bobby's phone calls to connect to a tower well west of his home tower in Mishicot.

(S1.3) Steven's recent letter strongly suggested that the Defense has subpoenaed Scott Tadych's phone records and that his phone connects via this western tower, too.

(S1.4) From this western location, the RAV4 returned to the vicinity of Scott's trailer and was parked near the the Old Mishicot Dam.

From Blaine's affidavit, I believe Bobby drove Scott's truck, and Scott drove the RAV4.

stevenaverycase.org/wp-content/upl…

stevenaverycase.org/wp-content/upl…

(S1.5) I cannot authenticate this, but a good research website (georgezipperer.blogspot.com )contains the screen capture shown below, in which Blaine says:

"He was driving a ford ranger".

georgezipperer.blogspot.com/2016/01/sacrif…

(S1.6) There was another RAV4 sighting by the propane truck driver on Avery Road that may be explained by Scott and Bobby driving past him.

A close reading of his police report shows he was there too early and referring to a "lime" colored car.

stevenaverycase.org/wp-content/upl…

(S2.1) Burdick's Affidavit:

Oct. 31, 2005:
Driving east on WI 147 toward Mishicot.
Saw vehicle by Old Dam on north side of road.
It was around dusk (~5:15 pm).
Small SUV, greenish in color.
It was parked facing NW toward a tree.
Gone several days later.

stevenaverycase.org/wp-content/upl…

(S2.2) Burdick says it was gone in "several" days, which means more than two, but not many. That would suggest it was there on November 1st and 2nd.

There is a small parking area next to the old dam, and it is 0.4 miles from Scott Tadych's trailer.

(S2.3) I believe they left Bobby's Blazer somewhere else, because Scott's truck would not raise suspicion at his trailer, and Bobby's Blazer shouldn't be seen in the vicinity of the RAV4.

The location inculpated Scott, so it likely was expected to be a temporary location.

(S3.1) Steps 3 through 7 are closely related, and will require a bit of explanation.

I believe Kevin Rahmlow saw Andy Colborn at the Cenex before noon on Wednesday, Nov 2nd, 2005, and not on Thursday Nov 3rd.

(S3.2) Kevin Rahmlow, a friend of Shaun Tadych, Scott Tadych's brother, said in his affidavit that he saw the RAV4 on Nov 3rd and 4th, and saw Colborn in uniform on the 4th before noon and reported the sighting.

foulplay.site/wp-content/upl…

(S3.3) The first problem with this story is that Andy Colborn didn't work on Nov 4th, and it is documented (2017 CASO page 54, below) and there is no evidence refuting it from the dispatch logs.

Colborn worked the 1200 to 2000 shift that week, and his day in uniform was Nov 3rd.

(S3.4) The second problem with this timeline, is that Colborn made his notorious Sam-William-Henry-5-82 call at 9:22 pm on Wednesday, Nov 3rd, after this radio discussion with Remiker:

9:15 pm
"Any idea who that plate comes back to? Negative"
clyp.it/fhxyprft

(S3.5) Here's the dispatch call recording of Sgt. Colborn asking Lynn to run "Sam-William-Henry-5-82". We now know that happened 7 minutes after the Remiker radio call at 9:22 pm on Nov 3, 2005.

(S3.6) For this timeline, my working theory is that Rahmlow told Andy about the RAV4 at the Old Mishicot Dam before noon on Wednesday, Nov 2nd.

Rahmlow puts Colborn in uniform, and Andy would be reporting to work for his 12:00 pm to 8:00 pm shift.

(S3.7) Alternatively, Colborn may have already been on duty, and Rahmlow might be wrong about it being before noon. I hear Cenex carries donuts.

(S3.8) There is corroborating evidence showing that Teresa Halbach's missing posters were up at Cenex on Nov 3rd.

Mishicot Police Chief Ryan Gilbert called Dispatch on Wednesday, after seeing Missing Person Posters in the Cenex:

(S3.9) We know this call is on Wednesday, because he references the young woman (Carmen Boutwell) who was found dead in Manitowoc on Wednesday morning, and says it's the same day.

(S3.10) I found this meaty tip on r/TickTockManitowoc, thanks to u/[deleted].

(S3.11) Note that the Dispatch Call by MTSO Officer Ryan (first name) says:

"Didn't they find the lady dead in Manitowoc today."

He's referring to Carmen Boutwell, who was found dead in her apartment on 11/03/2005, which puts this call on that date.

(S4.1) So I've really moved on to Step 4, when Kevin Rahmlow tells Colborn he's seen the vehicle on Teresa's Missing Persons poster down at the Old Mishicot Dam.

(S4.2) I suspect Colborn took one of the missing persons posters with him, and may have headed to that location, the Old Mishicot Dam, since it was a short drive away.

However, he was under pressure to get to work and punch in.

(S4.3) So it's the early afternoon of Nov 3rd, Colborn has Teresa's Missing Persons poster, but the Manitowoc County Sheriff's Department hasn't been contacted about the case yet, so it's not too important.

Also, there's buzz in the air about the death of Carmen Boutwell.

(S5.1) Meanwhile, Bobby and Scott have dealt with Teresa, and it's time to hide her car with Steven's blood in it. They don't want to be seen, so they take back roads to the rear entrance of the Avery Auto Salvage yard and head toward Conveyor Road.

(S5.2) As they drive by the house at the junction of Jambo Creek Road and the entrance to the Radandt Quarry, they catch the eye of Wilmer Siebert, working in his backyard.

stevenaverycase.org/wp-content/upl…

(S5.3) Scott and Bobby try to get the RAV4 on the Salvage Yard property near the crusher, but when they look down south conveyor, it appears to be blocked by many cars. There is actually a way around them, but its not on the road.

Credit: @Joriz74

(S5.4) Instead they take the north-side branch, where there is only one red car in the way. It's a red Pinto wagon chassis that they may be able to get around.

(S5.4) This may be where the accident occurred. There is damage to the RAV4 with the transfer of some red object into a crack. The wheel well liner also popped free.

I suspect the RAV4 was abandoned here and the perps fled in the White Jeep.

(S5.5) The RAV4 has Teresa's blood in the back, but doesn't yet have Steven's planted blood. That will come on Wednesday night after Steven goes to Menards.

The proof the car rested here for quite a while comes from the HRD dogs alerts.

(S5.6) Finally the perps return to the White Jeep and leave the way they came, driving right past Wilmer Siebert again.

(S6.1) Which brings us to Step 6. Earlier, Kevin Rahmlow had told Andy Colborn that he had seen Teresa's RAV4 at the Old Mishicot Dam turnaround.

It meant nothing to Andy at the time, but all hell broke loose when Teresa's Attempt To Locate (ATL) was launched.

(S6.2) CASO Report, Page 1: Blast Off

At approximately 1700 hours on 1 1/03/05, Cpl. Leslie Lemieux began the initial investigation of a possible missing person. Karen Halbach said that her daughter, Teresa Marie Halbach, had not been seen or heard from since Monday, 10/31/05.

(S6.3) Cpl. Lemieux contacted Detective Mark Wiegert, and the CASO branch of the investigation was off to the races. Phone records were pulled and reverse lookups were performed.

The dispatch call actually came in at 2:52 pm, but heh.

(S6.4) CASO Inv. John (Deder-Deder) Dedering contacted the Manitowoc County Sheriff's Office (MTSO) sometime after 17:00 hours.

At 18:37:43, MTSO Dispatch put out an ATTEMPT TO LOCATE (ATL) alert on Teresa.

(S6.5) At about 19:00 hours, Dedering arrived at MTSO and talked with Lt. Lenk, Sgt. Colborn, and Inv. Remiker about the situation. They had already been notified by phone.

This is the 1st time Andy Colborn would have known that the Teresa Halbach case was in his jurisdiction.

(S6.6) Based on Teresa's phone records, Colborn first contacted Steven Avery, who was believed to be one of her last stops.

Colborn briefly met w/Steven and was allowed to search his residence, and then drove past George Zipperer's as he returned to MTSO.
stevenaverycase.org/wp-content/upl…

(S6.7) Colborn returned to the Sheriff's Office and pow-wowed with Lt. Lenk, Det. Remiker and perhaps CASO Inv. Dedering. They agreed to go to Zipperer's together, believing it to be Teresa's last stop.

(S6.8) Colborn left alone first and waited across CTH B at the church to rendezvous with the others. At 9:15 pm, Remiker chatted with Colborn over the radio.

9:15 pm
Remiker: "Any idea who that plate comes back to? "
Colborn: "Negative"

clyp.it/fhxyprft

(S6.9) I believe Colborn discussed his meeting with Kevin Rahmlow that occurred earlier that day at the Cenex with Remiker.

Colborn had either written down the plate number from Kevin, or from visiting the site, or had the poster.

Just 7 minutes later, he called Dispatch.

(S6.10) Here's the dispatch call recording of Sgt. Colborn asking Lynn to run "Sam-William-Henry-5-82".

(S6.11) Andy was either was sitting in his police car at the church across from George Zipperer's home, or he drove to the Old Mishicot Dam Turnabout.

It was 7 minutes later, so I suspect he drove to the turnabout and the RAV4 was no longer there. Then he ran the plate.

(S6.12) If Rahmlow spoke to Colborn on 11/3/2005, it unifies a lot of this evidence. The fact that MTSO buried the evidence is of course, a huge Brady violation, because it was hugely exculpatory.

(S7.1) Just as CASO and MTSO activated, so did Teresa's posse headquartered at her home. Scott had alerted Teresa's mom and started gathering the troops before she finished with CASO.

Mike Halbach and Ryan Hillegas were key troops that afternoon.

(S7.2) Kelly Pitzen also answered the call, as Scott, Mike and Ryan broke into Teresa's online cell phone account, looked at her recent calls & reviewed her messages.

Ryan had called support to get in, possibly having Kelly speak, but didn't want to admit. This was suspicious.

(S7.3) Zellner caught Ryan lying about his whereabouts on 11/3/2005, because he received calls from Kelly Pitzen, when he was supposed to be at Teresa's home with her.

What I believe really happened is Ryan and Mike went a snoopin' at the ASY.

(S7.4) I believe Ryan and Mike found Teresa's RAV4 on Conveyor Road the night of Nov 3rd, 2005, and told Sheriff Pagel. They believed they trespassed.

The Nov 4th flyover was intended to film the RAV4 to provide probable cause for a search warrant.

Plan A was in motion.

(S8.1) This brings us to Step 8, Bobby Dassey and Grey Beard pushing the RAV4 into the Salvage Yard from STH 147 down Avery Road.

When last seen, Bobby and the gang had smashed up the RAV4 on conveyor road, but felt a need to still move it.

(S8.2) Crazy as it may seem, Siebert and Sowinski are two of our most reliable witnesses, and I believe both are telling the truth. To harmonize their stories, I have developed the failed back entry attempt theory.

Let's see how it plays.

(S8.3) After driving past Wilmer, Bobby and his pal tried to bring the RAV4 unto the Avery property using the conveyor road. They may not have tried when they first went there, because the Avery brothers were awake on the yard.

(S8.4) My best guess is they tried to push by the Vega wagon and got the wheel well liner all tangled up with their left front tire.

After this happened, they may have decided to leave and come back when it was dark.

(S8.5) Moving the RAV4 thought the pit seemed to risky, so they changed their plan to driving the RAV4 in the front entrance in the dead of night.

The route was something like this. Scott worked graveyards, so Gray Beard was recruited.

(S8.6) Well two things happened, but I'm not sure where or when. First, the RAV4 battery went dead.

Second, Bobby pushed the RAV4 far enough that he became very sweaty and hot, and decided to take his shirt off.

(S8.7) I strongly suspect the grey beard steered as Bobby pushed for the majority of the pushed distance.

The distance also wasn't trivial, or Bobby wouldn't have worked up such a sweat.

(S8.8) Bobby may have gone to the battery room at ASY to try to get another battery, but this would have been frustrating and difficult late at night.

Someone who used a wrench on the bracket nuts was left handed, since his knuckles cleaned the fire wall.

Credit: @TTMFanGirl

(S8.9) So at some point, moving the RAV4 transforms into the scene reported by Tom Sowinski. The battery is dead or disconnected unexpectedly and Bobby and Grey Beard are pushing it; Bobby has been pushing it for quite some time.

(S8.10) Bobby is frustrated, tired and triggered, when Sowinski unexpectedly appears on Avery Road. With his amygdala hijacked, he is ready to go predatory at a moment's notice.

Sowinski sensed this instinctively, and drove off the road to get away.

Credit: @MKUniversoul

(S8.11) Maybe the battery was swapped after Sowinski, or maybe before. At any rate, Bobby and Grey Beard get the RAV4 where they wanted it by the wee morning hours of Oct 4th, 2005. They disguise it a bit, and then leave to get some well deserved rest.

(S8.12) Bobby and his gang also acquired and planted Steven's blood in the RAV4 that night. I believe it was before they moved the RAV4 from the conveyor road, because there was a blood scent trail from Steven's home to conveyor road.

(S9.1) The 1st CASO Flyover: Preamble

Ryan and Mike have seen the RAV4 on Conveyor Road and have informed Sheriff Pagel about it. They think they were trespassing on the Avery's property, so the Sheriff comes up with a plan to do a flyover the next day: Plan A.

(S9.2) According to Shadow Analysis, the Flyover of the Avery Salvage Yard begins around 3:00 pm.

Sheriff Pagel and Inv. Baldwin ride along with the chartered pilot in his small plane, and try to take video with a hand held camera.

(S9.3) CASO only turns over 4 or 5 minutes of the flyover from Nov 4th, the portion of the sound spectrum marked "Plane" below.

Where the original recording or film went, we don't know. It's one of Zellner's Brady Violation claims.

(S9.4) The film was awful. The camera moved continuously and watching the video made you seasick.

Nothing was found on conveyor road and as soon as Sheriff Pagel viewed the film, he knew Plan A had failed.

(S9.5) Breaking the film down, frame by frame, and knowing where the RAV4 should be, there is one frame in the entire film that may show the presence of the RAV4.

It was debated vigorously on r/TickTockManitowoc.

(S9.6) I'm of the strong opinion that the RAV4 is there. I made my argument using the exhibit below.

- The top picture is the magic frame, zoomed and enhanced.

- The bottom picture is a frame form the Nov 5th flyover, where the RAV4 is present, but covered with a tarp.

(S9.7) Here's a further close-up of the critical frame.

Not convinced? Many weren't.

(S9.8) Whether you see the RAV4 or you don't, the point is that the CASO police didn't see it, and needed a Plan B.

Ryan and Mike had told them where it was, and it wasn't there. So they called them in after the failed flyover to see if they could find it again.

(S10.1) At 3:11pm on Nov 4th, Ryan Hillegas received the first of what would be 22 calls with "NO CALL ID".

Sheriff Pagel may have called for Plan B from the plane, immediately after the flyover. He summoned Ryan and perhaps Mike, to the Salvage Yard to relocate the RAV4.

(S10.2) At 4:15 pm, about 64 minutes later, Ryan received the second mysterious call with "NO CALL ID". This one showed a type code of "D", meaning Ryan was roaming and not at his home tower.

(S10.3) The drive from Hilbert to Pagel's rendezvous point near the Avery Salvage Yard would take about 39 minutes. Ryan probably rounded up Mike, arrived there and received his initial briefing.

The first call at 4:15 pm was a status check, as Ryan & Mike began their mission.

(S10.4) Mysterious "NO CALL ID", Type D, Status Checks continued until 7:25 pm, when Steven Avery was sent to look in the pit, because Chuck had seen lights back there.

Two fairly long calls occurred at 6:34 pm & 6:41 pm. I suspect that's when they found the new RAV4 location.

(S10.5) In the aftermath of the long search, Ryan received a myriad of other calls, some from the Halbachs. I suspect CASO had notified them that "Plan B" had completed successfully.

(S11.1) With the successful completion of "Plan B" part one, preparations began for "Part B" part deux:

Pam Sturm was going to be sent into the Avery Salvage Yard to identify the location of the RAV4.

(S11.2) Pam Sturm, aka Pam of God, was deeply moved as she testified about that fateful morning in court.

(S11.3) It seemed like some of the CASO officers didn't get the update message, when Lt. Kelly Sippel reported that the RAV4 was found in the SW corner of the yard.

(S11.4) So Pam of God had brought them probable cause, so Tom Fassbender and Company descended on the RAV4 to quickly contaminate its exterior under the pretext of protecting it, but that's another story.

milwaukeemag.com/blood-simple/

(S11.5) So Iteration 2 went pretty smoothly as I added detail. I will add the Blood Collection and Planting caper next, which happened after they brought the RAV4 past Wilmer onto the ASY.

And of course, there's the bone planting caper, but for now, I think I have a good start.