We are all looking for signs of Putin pivoting towards negotiations, not war, because we all want to avoid war. But we should be careful about cherry-picking the tea leaves. 1/ THREAD
He told Lavrov to pursue negotiations, yes. That's good news. 2/
But Putin also called Donbas a genocide. How can Putin stand by and watch a genocide of ethnic Russians (his frame not mine)? That quip from Putin scared me. 3/
The Duma passed a (non-binding) resolution calling for Russia to recognize Ukrainian regions as independent states. That's de facto a declaration of war since Putin-backed rebels don't control all of these territories. 4/
So there are new tea leaves pointing in opposite directions. 5/ END THREAD
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