"It is hard to ignore the growing sense of deterministic resignation among foreign policy leaders in the United States and worldwide about the end of the American era." THREAD 1/ "Trump’s success at the ballot box has led many former internationalists to conclude that American leaders have lost faith in global engagement, multilateralism, and democracy promotion, and that U.S. voters would rather turn inward and go it alone—especially when it comes to trade and immigration." 2/

George H.W. Bush had the support of both the US Congress (majority votes in both houses) and the UNSC (UNSCR 678) before he launched his attack against Iraq in 1991. THREAD 1/ Clinton won the support of NATO allies, who voted unanimously to endorse US air strikes against Serbia in 1999. 2/

"After just a few weeks in office, the list of Trump’s concessions to Russia is truly extraordinary. It includes (1) intelligence sharing with Ukraine has been discontinued; (2) USAID assistance for Ukraine, including funding to repair its energy grid and for anti-corruption programs, has been discontinued;" 1/THREAD "(3) U.S. funding for Russian civil society and independent media operating in exile has been stopped; (4) diplomatic relations with Moscow have been restored, beginning with a meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Saudi Arabia a few weeks ago;" 2/

"When you add it all up – Trump’s concessions to Putin, insults to Zelenskyy, extortion of Ukraine, bad negotiation tactics and refusal to enforce a peace deal – there’s no evidence that Trump is serious about mediating a peace, and there’s a lot of evidence to suggest that all he cares about is courting Putin." 1/ THREAD "I hope I’m wrong, because trying to appease Putin and abandon our democratic partners in Ukraine will have terrible implications for American security interests not just in Europe, but also worldwide. If Putin gets away with it, why wouldn’t China’s Xi Jinping invade and take over Taiwan? I hope Trump and his team will eventually realize how weak they will look if they capitulate to Putin and throw a democratic partner under the bus." 2/

I hope @SecRubio and @MikeWaltz47 have studied Mearsheimer. This paragraph in the thread below is particularly relevant for today. It's Realism 101. 1/ THREAD “Appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and therefore it is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous foe into a kinder gentler opponent much less a peace loving state. Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet not shrink and aggressors appetite for conquest.” 2/

Zelensky has thanked Trump, Congress, and the American people many times.

But let's be clear: when Trump and Vance said that THEY are trying to help Ukraine right now, and need to be thanked for the work personally, there are reasons to wonder. 1/ THREAD 1. Team Trump has told Ukraine that they have to give up territory to Russia. Zelenskyy should thank them for that? 2/

Lots of folks, including in the Trump administration, invoking "realism" as the reason why Putin needs to be appeased. I hope they have read this scholar, one of the most important realist scholars of our era. 1/THREAD "Appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and, therefore, is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous force into a kinder, gentler opponent, much less a peace-loving state." 2/

So, let's summarize the negotiations for peace in Ukraine so far -- who got what in the last week. THREAD 1/ Concessions given or floated to Putin: (1) Ukrainian territory, (2) no Ukraine membership in NATO, (3) US withdrawing forces from Europe, (4) elections in Ukraine BEFORE real negotiations, (5) lifting of sanctions, (6) normalizing US-Russian relations, ... 2/

The new Trump team has a very confused posture when it comes to sovereignty. On the one hand, they preach sovereignty, America First, no international constraints, for the US etc. 1/ THREAD One the other hand, they tell Europeans how they need to change their policies on censorship and immigration. 2/

During the last Cold War, the U.S. competed for influence with the Soviet Union throughout the developing world. ... we eventually prevailed in this dimension of competition because we offered better trade and investment opportunities and provided more effective foreign assistance. 1/THREAD "Based on the first weeks of his second term, Trump does not seem to care about forging closer ties with developing nations." 2/

Supporting (small l) "liberal ideas —freedom, liberty, democracy, markets, and human rights—abroad also serves American interests. Trump is short-sighted in abandoning a longstanding, bipartisan tradition of promoting democracy around the world." THREAD 1/ "Think about our history of conflict and cooperation. Our best allies have always been democracies, and our worst enemies—autocrats like Hitler, Mussolini, Japanese generals, Stalin, Mao, Saddam Hussein, Milosevic, etc. Today, we face the greatest threats to American national security from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—all dictatorships—as well as illiberal and anti-democratic non-state actors like Hamas, Hezbollah, and ISIS." 2/

"... there will still be some constraints on implementing Trump’s foreign policy strategy." THREAD 1/ "First, his new administration is already showing signs of ideological division. Secretary Rubio and Vice President Vance have very different views on Ukraine. Trump’s new National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, also used to be a big supporter of Ukraine. The debate about work visas for immigrants between Steve Bannon and Elon Musk was also fierce." 2/

I remain skeptical that conditions are ripe for a deal. If Trump threatens to cut aid to Ukraine, Putin will be emboldened to keep fighting, not stop his invasion. But dont believe me. Read
John Mearsheimer. 1/ THREAD Mearsheimer wrote in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,

"appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and, therefore, is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous force into a kinder, gentler opponent, much less a peace-loving state. Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet, not shrink, an aggressor’s appetite for conquest. … " 2/

"Skeptics argue that Putin will never accept Ukraine’s joining NATO. But Ukraine and NATO members do not need to ask for Putin’s permission. Putin has no place in negotiations between Ukraine and the alliance. Allowing him to disrupt or put off these deliberations would be a sign of American weakness not only to Moscow but also to Beijing." 1/ THREAD "These skeptics also grossly overestimate Putin’s concern about Ukraine’s joining NATO. Putin did not invade Ukraine in 2022 to stop NATO’s expansion. In the run-up to 2022, NATO membership for Ukraine was a distant dream, and everyone in Brussels, Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington knew it." 2/

"Given his past skepticism about aid to Ukraine and NATO more generally, it will not be easy to persuade him to take this path. Such a deal, however, supports several of Trump’s objectives." THREAD 1/ By bringing Ukraine into NATO, Trump could achieve a significant victory for one of his foreign policy priorities: burden-sharing. After joining NATO, Ukraine’s armed forces would overnight become the best and most experienced European army in the alliance. Ukrainian soldiers could be deployed to other frontline states, allowing Washington to reduce its own troop commitments." 2/"

Before he leaves office, "President Biden must transfer all assets of the Russian Central Bank currently held in American banks to the government of Ukraine or an international foundation committed to Ukrainian reconstruction." 1/ THREAD "These funds amount to some $300 billion, of which the most significant share has been seized by the Europeans. These funds should be transferred as soon as possible to help finance the Ukrainian government and reconstruction." 2/

Let's all stop repeating Putin's bs line about the "threat of Ukraine joining NATO" as the reason he was compelled to invade. Its complete hogwash. There is no data to support this hypothesis. THREAD 1/ I was in the Obama administration for the first 5 years. We had NO plans to expand NATO to Ukraine. Maybe we should have had a plan. But we did not. That is a fact. In 2010, Yanukovich was elected president & had no interest in pursuing a NATO invite. That is a fact too. 2/

I'm watching with elation the fall of Assad and his barbaric regime.

But also remembering in sorrow the many Syrians who needlessly lost their lives over the last decade because Putin, Iran, and Hezbollah propped up these killers, and we failed to stop them. 1/ THREAD In my last book, From Cold War to Hot Peace, the longest chapter is called "Chasing Russians, Failing Syrians." In that chapter, I documented how we in the West tried but failed to get Putin to work with us to bring an end to the Syrian civil war. /2

Many compare Trump to Putin. I have, too. But the moment right now feels more like the Yeltsin era, when Russia's oligarchs took advantage of an older & somewhat incapacitated leader to privatize the state for their own interests. I wrote about this at length in the 1990s. THREAD 1/ See for instance, McFaul, “Russia's ‘Privatized’ State as an Impediment to Democratic Consolidation,” Part I, Security Dialogue, Vol. 29, No. 2 (Spring 1998), pp. 25-33. 2/

I hope future members of Trump's national security team are students of John Mearsheimer, especially when dealing with Putin. THREAD 1/ In his classic The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, Professor Mearsheimer wrote (p. 164),
"appeasement contradicts the dictates of offensive realism and, therefore, is a fanciful and dangerous strategy." 2/

"A second Trump presidency will usher in a new chaotic, uncertain, and violent era, both at home and abroad. Some believe that’s ok, that we need an era of disruption to radically undermine the status quo at home and abroad. I don’t." 1/ THREAD "As an academic, I have studied revolutions for over four decades. Some generate better outcomes for societies that live through them. Most do not. Instead, they produce sharp economic downturns, civil wars, dictatorships, and interstate conflicts." 2/