"Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine. Russian society did not pressure him to do so. But since the invasion was launched, large chunks of Russian society have supported this war, including exhibiting support for or indifference to the atrocities being committed by Russian soldiers against Ukrainian civilians." 1/ THREAD "Putin personally is not killing Ukrainian grandmothers or kidnapping Ukrainian children, Russians are—and, as we now know from intercepting phone calls, they sometimes do so with the vocal support of their fathers, mothers, and girlfriends back home (or, even more grotesquely, while vacationing in Europe)" 2/

📷

Congress should combine in its one bill new aid to Ukraine an the REPO Act. Let me explain. THREAD 1/ Let me add a sweetener. By large majorities, the House and Senate committees recently voted in favor of the REPO Act – Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity for Ukrainians Act – that would transfer frozen Russian assets held at American banks to Ukraine for reconstruction. 2/

Advice from a realist:
“Appeasement...is a fanciful and dangerous strategy. It is unlikely to transform a dangerous foe into a kinder gentler opponent much less a peace loving state.  Indeed, appeasement is likely to whet not shrink and aggressors appetite for conquest.” 1/THREAD “Because great powers are programmed for offense, and appease state is likely to interpret any power concession by another state as a sign of weakness -- as evidence that the appeaser is unwilling to defend the balance of power the appeased state is then likely to continue pushing for more concessions.” 2/

In 2000, I wrote an article for @washingtonpost warning about Putin's anti-democratic ways & people called me alarmist. 1/ THREAD In 2014, I wrote a piece in @nytimes calling from containment 2.0 for Russia and people called me a hawk. I wrote a longer piece in @ForeignAffairs a few years later outlining a detailed containment strategy for Russia & I was labeled a "warmonger". 2/

"How and when we provide this aid matters too. This week, my colleagues from allied countries lamented how indecisive and divided the United States looks, or is, as a country – how are we even not able to push through a bill that enjoys bipartisan support?" 1/ THREAD "While our allies lament our indecision, division, and polarization, our enemies celebrate them. In Russia, they are laughing at us right now. Putin’s propagandists on state-controlled television praised Republicans for advancing Russian national interests." 2/

"Congress should approve new aid to Ukraine as fast as possible—not as a gesture of charity for Ukraine but as a hard-nosed and clear-headed investment in U.S. security objectives." THREADS 1/ "1. A Ukrainian victory will dramatically diminish the threat from Russia." 2/

You cannot claim to be a hawk on China but then not support new military aid to Ukraine. THREAD 1/ First, Russia and China are de facto allies. Anything that helps Russia indirectly helps China. Cutting aid to Ukraine is a gift to Putin and Xi (and the mullahs in Terhan, by the way, funding Hamas). 2/

"The moral argument for supporting Ukraine is clear." THREAD 1/ "Russia’s war of colonial conquest is immoral and wrong. We cannot allow the world to return to a state of anarchy, where powerful countries can change borders at will." 2/

U.S. security interests in helping Ukraine defeat Russia are clear.

(1) A Ukrainian victory will dramatically diminish the threat from Russia, allowing us to spend less on European defense and send fewer soldiers to NATO bases in the Baltics; THREAD 1/ (2) A Ukrainian victory will make Chinese President Xi Jinping think harder about invading Taiwan; 2/

Think strategically about Ukraine:

"After the war ends, Ukraine will emerge as a powerful U.S. and NATO ally. Ukraine’s military will be one of Europe’s largest and best-armed, a defensive bulwark to deter future renewed Russian aggression and keep the peace." 1/ "Already, Ukraine is moving away from its Soviet-era systems and adopting U.S.- and NATO-made weapons. After the war, Ukraine should quickly be invited to join NATO as it will become a serious provider of security for all of Europe." 2/

My take on the Biden-Xi summit:

"...last week, the most important “bilat” [at APEC] by far – the most important event of the whole summit actually – was the meeting between President Joe Biden and Chairman Xi Jinping. That meeting was a major success for Biden." 1/ THREAD "Biden and Xi did not sign any treaties. They did not announce multi-billion investment or trade deals. Despite representing the world’s two greatest powers, the two leaders did not commit to working together on ending the wars in Ukraine or Gaza." 2/

"In the great-power contest with China over the next several decades, democratic and liberal ideas constitute some of the greatest advantages of the United States and its democratic allies; this makes defending democracy a national interest." 1/ THREAD "This is not just idealism: As former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright argued, “Promoting democracy … is not just the right thing to do. For America it is the smart thing to do.” 2/

Why Congress Must Provide New Aid to Ukraine. 1/ THREAD

There are many realpolitik arguments for continued aid to Ukraine. Real realists understand that U.S. military assistance to Ukraine directly serves our own national security interests. First, Putin’s Russia threatens our NATO allies’ security in Europe. By fighting, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are weakening the Russian military threat every day. 2/

"Biden may fail. People judge crises and wars only by how they end. No one will praise Biden and Blinken for their initial efforts if this conflict causes an enormous number of civilian casualties or pulls in Lebanon, Syria, Iran, or, most alarming, the US." 1/ THREAD "Biden and his team face only hard choices with difficult trade-offs, and no easy diplomatic solutions are in sight." 2/

Some, but not all, US responses to 9-11 were mistakes. Invading Iraq— mistake. Invading Afghanistan — not a mistake (whole world supported by the way). 1/ THREAD Not pursuing Al Qaeda to our fullest ability in 2001– mistake. Chasing Al Qaeda for years after, including killing OBL in 2011- not a mistake. 2/

"Last week, Hamas carried out horrific, barbaric acts of terrorism against innocent Israeli civilians, resulting in over a thousand killed, including 22 American citizens. The brutality and scale of their slaughter – including killing grandmothers and babies – was shocking." 1/ "No previous injustice, prior wrong, or longstanding grievance justifies these heinous actions. Hamas launched its terrorist attacks knowing very well that Israel would retaliate, deliberately triggering more suffering for the people they claim to defend." 2/

"even if Members of Congress or their constituents do not care about morality in international politics or ethics in U.S. foreign policy – because after all, it is a brutish and nasty world out there – there are many realpolitik arguments for continued aid to Ukraine." THREAD 1/ "Real realists understand that U.S. military assistance to Ukraine directly serves our own national security interests." 2/

The Realist Case for Helping Ukraine Win.

"First, Ukraine’s win is essential to enhance European security. Ukrainian warriors are fighting for their nation’s right to exist but with an added security benefit for us." 1/ THREAD "They are fighting Russian soldiers invading Europe — so that American and NATO soldiers do not have to do so later." 2/

Assessment/hypothesis #1: Putin will not negotiate until he has exhausted all of his military capabilities to try to occupy the 4 regions of Ukraine that he annexed on paper last fall. THREAD 1/ Assessment/hypothesis #2: Putin will not negotiate until he knows the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. 2/

Of course, we will never know all the facts. Its Putin's Russia. But if true, as most believe (including me) now that Putin killed Prigozhin, I have some questions. 1/ THREAD Why did Putin choose to kill Prigozhin in such a dramatic way? Why not just arrest him? Or kill him with a bullet? Putin needed the alibi of an "accident"? Why? 2/

Learned some shocking statistics from the @StateDept today. Just shocking. 1/ THREAD We currently have 62 State Department nominees outstanding with the Senate, including 38 ambassadorial nominees on the Senate floor awaiting confirmation! 35 of these ambo nominees are career foreign service officers. 2/