Olga Tokariuk Profile picture
Fellow at @ChathamHouse Leadership Academy in International Affairs, @CHUkraineForum. @CEPA non-resident fellow, ex @risj_oxford. Journalist, disinfo researcher

Feb 18, 2022, 9 tweets

This week, several interesting public opinion polls have been published in Ukraine re NATO, EU, Russian threat, Minsk agr.ts, etc. These surveys were conducted by reputable Ukrainian pollsters, such as Rating group and Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. A thread 🧵

Probably the most remarkable poll is about foreign policy preferences of the Ukrainian population. It shows that NATO membership support stands at 62% now (compared to 55% in December 21). It has been growing consistently since Russian aggression in 2014 ratinggroup.ua/research/ukrai…

68% of Ukrainians support the country's membership in the EU. It was less than 50% in December 2013. The gap between supporters and opponents here is even wider than re NATO membership.
❗️More than 60% supporting EU and NATO dispel a myth of Ukraine as 'a deeply divided country'

Now, attitudes to leading Western countries and their role in negotiations re Donbas. 60% believe the US 'protects Ukraine interests', 58% think so of the UK. Only 26% think so of France, and 13% of Germany (equal no said 'protect Russian interests'), most think they are neutral

Re Minsk agreements, most Ukrainians (63%) think they have to be reviewed and new agreements should be signed. This shows a growing disbelief they can put an end to a conflict. 18% believe Ukraine should abandon Minsk altogether, only 11% say Ukraine should fulfill all provisions

In case if Russia recognizes the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, 55% of Ukrainians think Kyiv should withdraw from the Minsk agreements. All info re Minsk here: ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggr…

When it comes to a threat of a new Russian invasion, less Ukrainians believed it was likely in the last week than a week before. 52% think the likelihood was medium or high, compared to 60% the week before. 25% say there's no threat, mostly in East Ukraine ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggr…

At the same time, the number of people who said they would be ready to defend their city/village in case of a Russian attack, is growing. It was 57% in February compared to 50% in December. 37% vs 33% said they were ready to armed resistance kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…

It is interesting however that 34% of Ukrainians still have a positive attitude towards Russia, meaning Russian people rather than the government. 50% have a negative attitude. But only 5% want Russia and Ukraine to unite in one state kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…
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