Olga Tokariuk Profile picture
Feb 18, 2022 9 tweets 5 min read Read on X
This week, several interesting public opinion polls have been published in Ukraine re NATO, EU, Russian threat, Minsk agr.ts, etc. These surveys were conducted by reputable Ukrainian pollsters, such as Rating group and Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. A thread 🧵
Probably the most remarkable poll is about foreign policy preferences of the Ukrainian population. It shows that NATO membership support stands at 62% now (compared to 55% in December 21). It has been growing consistently since Russian aggression in 2014 ratinggroup.ua/research/ukrai…
68% of Ukrainians support the country's membership in the EU. It was less than 50% in December 2013. The gap between supporters and opponents here is even wider than re NATO membership.
❗️More than 60% supporting EU and NATO dispel a myth of Ukraine as 'a deeply divided country'
Now, attitudes to leading Western countries and their role in negotiations re Donbas. 60% believe the US 'protects Ukraine interests', 58% think so of the UK. Only 26% think so of France, and 13% of Germany (equal no said 'protect Russian interests'), most think they are neutral
Re Minsk agreements, most Ukrainians (63%) think they have to be reviewed and new agreements should be signed. This shows a growing disbelief they can put an end to a conflict. 18% believe Ukraine should abandon Minsk altogether, only 11% say Ukraine should fulfill all provisions
In case if Russia recognizes the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, 55% of Ukrainians think Kyiv should withdraw from the Minsk agreements. All info re Minsk here: ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggr…
When it comes to a threat of a new Russian invasion, less Ukrainians believed it was likely in the last week than a week before. 52% think the likelihood was medium or high, compared to 60% the week before. 25% say there's no threat, mostly in East Ukraine ratinggroup.ua/files/ratinggr…
At the same time, the number of people who said they would be ready to defend their city/village in case of a Russian attack, is growing. It was 57% in February compared to 50% in December. 37% vs 33% said they were ready to armed resistance kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…
It is interesting however that 34% of Ukrainians still have a positive attitude towards Russia, meaning Russian people rather than the government. 50% have a negative attitude. But only 5% want Russia and Ukraine to unite in one state kiis.com.ua/?lang=ukr&cat=…
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More from @olgatokariuk

Dec 7, 2023
A product of many months of work, my research paper for @risj_oxford is finally out today! In it, I dissect Ukraine's use of humour as a tool of strategic communications and countering disinformation in the context of Russia's full-scale invasion 🧵👇
reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk/memes-morale-d…
Here are six ways how humour worked in Ukraine's case - but can be applicable in other contexts:

1. It was an internal unity and coping mechanism. Ukrainians discovered the profound impact of humour on mental health in the situation of full-scale war
2. Humour can attract wider audiences and raise awareness about issues they don't normally care about. Humour helped Ukraine to reach outside of the bubble of supporters and evoke solidarity from a wider crowd. It was used for fundraising by @Official_NAFO and @saintjavelin
Read 12 tweets
Oct 30, 2023
IMO, too much doom and gloom in the latest @TIME cover article on Ukraine. Too much focus on Zelensky, as if it's just his war and his decisions. Too many anonymous quotes by various 'aides' and 'advisors'. Too little about the Ukrainian people. Take it with a grain of salt
An important fact that is casually mentioned in the article: 80% of Ukrainians oppose amy territorial concessions to Russia. Whatever some anonymous Zelensky advisers would say, not just the president but most Ukrainians are ready to keep fighting. It's an existential threat
Ukrainians will keep fighting even if the West abandons their support, citing war fatigue, corruption, Middle East escalation or whatever else reason is mentioned in the article. But the losses will be much higher. Russia's threat to Ukraine and democracies won't go away
Read 4 tweets
Oct 19, 2023
Listening to excellent @TsybulskaLiubov insights on Ukraine's resistance to Russian information warfare at #StopFIMI conference in London. The key to success in countering disinformation is cooperation between different actors in the society and deep understanding of a threat
Example of real-life impact of disinformation in Ukraine: Russian actors penetrate social media groups of Ukrainians whose relatives are MIA and instigate rebellion against the Ukrainian government; often, they exploit existing grievances and organic narratives to sow divisions
In Ukraine, Russian malign actors not particularly successful since the start of full-scale invasion because 1) Ukraine already had the tools to counter disinformation, prepared since 2014 2) government and the people united and acted together in the face of an existential threat
Read 4 tweets
Jul 3, 2023
As a tribute to Ukrainian writer and poet Victoria Amelina, killed by a Russian missile in Kramatorsk, please read and circulate her work far and wide. In this thread, I will collect links to some of her writings translated into English ✍️
In this essay written at the start of Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Victoria tells how she was raised to admire the great Russian culture, despite living in the West of Ukraine. How Moscow was the centre of her universe - until she visited it iwpcollections.squarespace.com/victoria-ameli…
This piece is painfully prophetic: 'Now there is a real threat that Russians will successfully execute another generation of Ukrainian culture – this time by missiles and bombs.
For me, it would mean the majority of my friends get killed'
eurozine.com/cancel-culture…
Read 9 tweets
Jun 7, 2023
Those who imply or suggest that Ukraine might be behind the blowing of Kakhovka dam ignore the context of this war.
1. Russia has been lying before launching the assault on Ukraine and continued to do from day one blaming Ukraine for crimes Russia itself committed 🧵
2. Ukraine warned repeatedly that Russians were about to blow up the Kakhovka dam since October 2022 and asked for an international monitoring mission there. Nobody reacted. 3. Russian military bloggers are boasting about blowing up the dam and asking for more strikes on 🇺🇦
4. Ukraine will suffer long-lasting consequences as a result of this catastrophe: loss of people's lives, entire settlements, fertile land, natural habitat, water supply problems in several regions. It's insane and there's absolutely no evidence to assume 🇺🇦 would do it to itself
Read 9 tweets
Mar 13, 2023
If you wonder why Ukrainians are unhappy about the Navalny documentary winning an Oscar and are rightfully suspicious of him, here's a useful thread
This article also sums up Ukrainians attitudes to Russian opposition pretty well: aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/…
In other news, Ukrainian award-winning filmmaker Iryna Tsilyk wrote today that a Russian director Aleksandr Molochnikov plans to film a documentary about Ukrainian war children. But Ukrainian families he got in touch with and who agreed were not told it was a Russian production
Read 5 tweets

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