Putin doesn't care if it's convincing or that something "looks bad". He only cares about consequences. He invaded Georgia in 2008 & Ukraine in 2014. He's still in power and still runs the richest mafia in the world.
Putin has been in power for 22 years, crushing Russian society while killing, jailing, and exiling all rivals and critics. He has assassinated across Europe and made war on neighbors. Calling anything he does a "miscalculation" requires proving it.
"Doesn't Putin realize how bad this looks?!" is one of most idiotic critiques of his oppression and aggression. Maybe he's better at being a brutal dictator than you are. Nemtsov murdered. Navalny poisoned and jailed. Ukraine occupied. How does that look?
Putin is still invited to Davos, still hiring corrupt Western officials to be his lapdogs, still getting pipeline deals. His cronies & their families are still enjoying the good life in the free world with their looted billions. How does that look?
Putin knows better than anyone how the West could unite and deter him by supporting his targets and going after his money. That the US & Europe decline to do so he interprets, correctly, as a green light to continue his attacks.
He'll attack Ukraine again because after the last dozen hostile acts the West said, "Oh, this is the end of Putin & Russia! It's a rogue state!" but went right back to business as usual. More Russian gas, more summits, more visas and real estate for his mafia.
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