Thread by @vcdgf555

Figuring out what sea it was going to be for the landing op was important.

Thread! Assuming it is NOT the Azov Sea, this presents realistically three amphibious landing sites IMHO (🟡🟠🔴) each with advantages and costs.

1/

First, I'd like to make the distinction that I do not know if an amphibious assault would be all one site, or whether the airborne would support or go independently. This is just where I'd put forces if it were one landing site.

2/

Currently, all of the 197th Assault Ship Brigade is in the Black Sea. Operational status for 2 are questionable. Yamal was under repairs for a collision and Filchenkov hasn't been seen active since 2019. Assuming 5 Alligator or Ropucha LSTs.

3/

There are also the 6 now-infamous LSTs from Northern and Baltic Fleets to consider.

Combined, this gives a potential estimated amphibious landing ability of approx. 11 LSTs.

4/

LSTs are designed to be driven close to (or in some case onto) beaches to deploy BTRs, MBTs, troops, etc. Because of the draft of the ship & the likely heavy armor load, it makes the most sense to deploy at longer beaches with no shallow sand bars, preferably w/ road access.

5/

There are 3 such locations I had in mind.

First 🟡 the stretch from Zaliznyi to Lazurne. It is close to occupied Crimea & would require shorter support trips. It would benefit from closer air support. Kherson & Mykolaiv would be under threat almost immediately.

6/

I would consider this location medium risk because it is where I would expect a landing, but the overwhelming amount of firepower in Crimea would rapidly prevail. Protecting supply lines will be critical for Russia in an occupation.

7/

My 2nd choice 🟠 would be between Lebedivka & Kurortne. This stretch would allow a push to the Romanian & Moldovan borders. It would flank Odessa without being exposed to too much resistance. However, there is not much strategic value here other than a safer foothold.

8/

I believe this site to be of lower risk. It may not take a full brigade to secure this area SW of the Dniester & it would put pressure almost immediately on Odessa. This would be the furthest choice from support in Crimea, but with less challenge.

9/

The highest risk (and reward) choice 🔴 is between Karolino-Buhaz & Chornomorsk. This is closer to Odessa & would provide a quick route to bypass or encircle the port city. Possibly even threaten Kyiv from the south or surge towards western Ukraine, if successful.

10/

The close proximity to Odessa would be pretty dangerous. Just as beneficial as the road out of the area would be, all of Ukraine's reinforcements would come down that road too.

Russian Naval Infantry are tough. How tough versus a larger force with Javelins is debatable.

11/

Again, these are just my thoughts out loud and are not the gospel, As such, I consider this an important topic for discussion. Thanks!

12/end