Thread by @therealarod1984

2/20 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - can confidently project Jan 28 as the fatality peak for this wave

1/n

2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/19, Cases 7DMA falling through 6K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA also into the 6K range and still falling fast
* While 2020 Winter wave was 5 months long from end to end, 2021 Winter will be less than 3

2/n

2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Peaks for this wave were 95% of previous Census record, 73% of ICU, and 52% of Vents
* Not only that, but the waves were shorter in length. Aggregates should be even less

3/n

2/20 TX Severe - Pg 4

* Jan 16-29 = fatality projections to dates already 80-95% reported
* Jan 30 on = TBD
* Fatality peak as of now is Jan 28, and I don't see it changing. Final peak number still TBD
* Going to be significantly less fatalities in this wave than previous

4/n
.

2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n

2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is through Jan 23 & very accurate
* CFR is projected through middle of hosp peak now

6/n

2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ still running at 0.52% through middle of hospitalization peak, and 5 days away from fatality peak
* Will slowly creep back but how far up is TBD
* Just under 1.00% CFR is seasonal flu territory

7/n

2/20 TX Severe Conclusion

So now we can say with 95% confidence that 1/28 was the fatality peak, and its going to end up right around 275, that Omicron CFR is <= seasonal flu territory.

Covid was already endemic as of December. Hopefully it stays that way.

8/end