1/
Let's talk about why Putin is doing what he's doing.
To understand Putin, we need to understand how Putin sees the world, how he was trained, and what drives him.
To do that we need to unpack a some history so we can put Putin in the context that allows us to understand him.
2/
First off, Putin was a KGB agent. For those of you that don't know the KGB was the Main security agency in Soviet Union. It dealt with internal security, intelligence and secret police functions.
It's isn't exactly this, but imagine combining the FBI and CIA...that's the KGB
3/
The KGB did intelligence work at home and abroad. Internally the KGB would MONITOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE OPINION, internal subversion, and any revolutionary plots in the Soviet Bloc. The KGB would spy on Soviet citizens and was in charge of stomping out dissent within the USSR...
4/
So the KGB played the role of ensuring there would be no dissent at home, and would engage in intelligence gathering, disinformation, subversion, and espionage abroad.
Again, like the CIA and FBI combined, but communist and with almost no due process for those it arrested...
5/
Now, where the KGB was the security agency, the Politburo was the political power in the USSR. There was a rather convoluted structure to the USSR, but the fact is the Politburo of the Communist Party was in fact the ruling body and the center of political power in the USSR...
6/
The head of the politburo was the "General Secretary" and the General Secretary was the De facto Leader of the USSR occupying a similar role to the President in America, or the Prime Minister in Britain (again, not exactly, approximately)
Got all that? Good, Let's continue...
7/
So, for most of the Soviet Unions history, no former head of the KGB had ever been able to become General Secretary. The reason for this was that after Stalin Died Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev gave a speech called On the Cult of Personality and Its Consequences"...
8/
Which lambasted Joseph Stalin's leadership, and the Cult of Personality he had created around himself. After that, Soviets were wary of giving one man too much power. They knew a former head of the KGB being General Secretary would have the loyalty of the security apparatus...
9/
And making that person the General Secretary would make them unstopable as there would be no mechanism available to check their power. It would be another Stalin.
Got all that? Ok, so here is where we get back to Putin...
10/
Remember that in 1975 Putin goes to work for the KGB.
In 1982 the Soviets go against their previous thinking, and they select former head of the KGB, Yuri Andropov, to be the General Secretary of the politburo and de facto leader of the USSR.
According to Ion Mihai Pacepa
11/
"the leaders of the former Warsaw Pact intelligence community, when I was one of them, looked up to Andropov as the man who substituted the KGB for the Communist party in governing the Soviet Union."
Andropov shifted the influence away from the politburo and to the KGB...
12/
(Ion Mihai Pacepa was a subordinate of Andropov)
So, while this happened, Vladimir Putin would have been watching it, and he would have been aware of what was going on. Not "as it happened" (there was no internet and Soviets always were delaying information) but...
13/
He would have had something of an inside view of what Andropov was doing, and why, why it was effective, and how Andropov was able to get power and maintain it.
Hold that thought while I make one other point and then we can wrap this up....
14/
When Putin was in the KGB the Soviet Union was a world power, and the Soviets were seen as on of twosuperpowers in the world along with the united States. At that time, is was not clear which power would come out on top. (in retrospect it's obvious, at the time it wasn't)
15/
At that time the soviets were feared and respected, had absolute dominance in their region of the world, and could exercise influence all over the world.
This is what Putin wants.
Putin wants to return Russia to it's place of respect, power, and prestige on the world stage.
16/
He sees the dissolution of the USSR as a mistake. When the USSR dissolved the direct influence the USSR maintained over it's satellite states (such as Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and East Germany) was lost, and the power of Russia was diminished...
17/
He wants to return Russia to it's former glory.
But, as we have seen, he has learned his lessons from watching the Old Soviet Union, and from his training as a KGB officer. As such Putin uses thuggery, espionage, deceit, disinformation, and subversion as his tactics...
18/
So it should surprise us not at all that Putin would invade one of the old territories of the USSR, particularly when he has a lot to gain if he can get it and keep it.
This is exactly what we should expect from him. After all, the USSR would regularly engage in exactly...
19/
This sort of expansionist behavior. We should expect this from Putin.
Further Putin has been telegraphing his nostalgia for the USSR for some time. The Russian hockey team was wearing the Jersey's of the USSR at a tournament in Moscow this past December.
That's not a fluke
20/
Putin is pulling out the old Soviet playbook in a bid to bring Russia back to prestige and prominence.
Putin may not subscribe to old Soviet Communist ideology. I am not entirely sure. What I am sure of is that Putin is an authoritarian thug who needs to be countered...
21/
Whether or not the west has the spine to do that is an open question. But we have seen this all before, and we ought not to be surprised that Putin would do this. His history practically begs us to think this is exactly what he would do.
One last thing....
22/
This thread, and it's ideas are not my own. I am not expert in Putin or Russia, but people who know much more then I do have relayed this to me, and I am relaying it to you.
I think it is spot on.
/fin.
PS/
I should add, because I forgot to make this clear in the original thread:
Putin doesn't want Russia's power and prestige back because it makes the lives of ordinary Russians better. He wants Russia's prestige and prominence back for his own aggrendizement and personal power
PPS/
This isn't a selfless thing for the glory of Mother Russia...it's about the selfish glory of Putin.
Regular Russians will suffer greatly so that Putin can increase his own power and sense of self importance on the world stage.
/fin
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