Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

To help provide context and analysis of the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 War that is grounded in international relations scholarship, here is an updated 🧵of the threads I've written over the past few months (and years) offering perspective on the 🇺🇦-🇷🇺 relationship and conflict.

[THREAD]

First, it's critical to understand that a war b/w Russia and Ukraine has been long in the making. Since the early 1990s, observers of the region recognized that Ukraine represented the key post-Cold War flashpoint in Europe

Second, some claim that "the West" exacerbated an already tense relationship (see above) by pushing NATO expansion after the Cold War. In particular, it's claimed that the USA promised the USSR that NATO would never expand. Is that true? Partially.

Third, even if you don't buy 🇷🇺's claims about a pledge, you could still say that @NATO pushed the limits of expansion (poking the bear?) when it admitted the Baltic states (🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹) in the early 2000s. How did that happen?

Fourth, important to remember that this war is really an escalation of a internal conflict (and proxy @NATO-Russia war) that has raged in Eastern Ukraine since 2014. Indeed, USA aid to Ukraine to help fight that war made Ukraine highly dependent on the USA

Fifth, recall that Trump leveraging Ukraine's dependency on USA aid is what lead to his first impeachment.

Sixth, now that invasion has begun, how will it unfold? Specifically, what are Russia's (read: Putin's) aims?

Finally, the current war solidifies a lesson I've long shared with my students (and have shared here on Twitter many times): Russia is THE central player in the major wars over the past 200+ years.

Addition 1: There are concerns that the war has gone from "a crisis with nuclear powers" to a "nuclear crisis". Here I lay out reasons to there are concerns nuclear weapons could be used

Addition 2: In this threaded response to @McFaul, I elaborate on why this situation is unprecedented

Addition 3: From sanctions, to macroeconomic disruptions, to war finance and supply, a 🧵 on the economics of the Ukraine-Russian War.

Addition 4: 🧵with my counter-argument to the "US/West is to blame for Russia’s invasion" claim.

I claim that an alternative IR theory -- offensive realism -- offers "a better" (not necessarily "best") explanation (& point to the irony in my claim).

Addition 5: 🧵 on the downsides and potential faults in the economic sanctions imposed by the international community

Addition 6: In this threaded response, I elaborate on why the sustainability of the sanctions (i.e. holding the coalition together) is my primary reason for questioning whether the sanctions will eventually prove effective.

Addition 7: Determining when this war becomes (or already is) a "World War" (or, at minimum, a war between major powers) requires defining "participation": is it only when a country's troops are involved in direct, sustained fighting?

Addition 8: 🇷🇺's war economy is leaving it vulnerable to becoming dependent on 🇨🇳, just as 🇬🇧's war economy during World War I made it dependent on 🇺🇸