Paul Poast Profile picture
Tweeting to teach. International Relations and Foreign Policy. @UChicago Prof. @ChicagoCouncil Fellow. @WPReview Columnist.
Fellakommando Südost 🇩🇪🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture Benjamin Hartmann Profile picture eDo Profile picture Daniel O'Donnell Profile picture Perry Ismangil Profile picture 77 subscribed
Jun 15 19 tweets 6 min read
When you hear "Liberal International Order", just think "the G-7, for better and for worse"

[THREAD] Image While some scholars and policy makers like to speak of the "Liberal International Order" as the collection of post-World War II international institutions....
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Jun 8 24 tweets 5 min read
Are the "opportunity costs" of arming Ukraine too high?

Short answer: no

Long answer: compared to what?

[THREAD] For those not aware, I am asking this question because of a new International Affairs piece that makes the argument "yes, they are too high"

academic.oup.com/ia/advance-art…
Jun 1 14 tweets 4 min read
In international politics, population is destiny.

[THREAD] Image As I wrote in my latest for @WPReview, shifting patterns in population growth will inevitably influence international politics.
worldpoliticsreview.com/global-demogra…
May 18 17 tweets 5 min read
What's wrong with the word "genocide"?

[THREAD] To be clear, I think we need to talk more about genocide in my discipline, International Relations.

May 11 22 tweets 7 min read
Should everyone have nuclear weapons?

That's the core question in the Waltz-Sagan debate

[THREAD] Image In my latest @WPReview thread, I wrote about another debate: whether nuclear weapons actually deter.
worldpoliticsreview.com/nuclear-weapon…
May 4 22 tweets 7 min read
Does the United States have a responsibility to protect the civilians of Gaza?

[THREAD] Image In my latest @WPReview column, I wrote of the downfall of "Responsibility to Protect" or R2P.

worldpoliticsreview.com/us-foreign-pol…
Apr 21 19 tweets 5 min read
The House passed a defense supplement for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

Ukraine aid was the most controversial portion of the supplement and might cost Speaker Johnson his leadership position.

Why did he do it?

[THREAD] Image As is being reported, Johnson stated “To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall....This is not a game, this is not a joke.”
cnn.com/2024/04/21/pol…
Apr 20 30 tweets 7 min read
Let's do this.

A close reading of Donald Trump's recent description of the Battle of Gettysburg.

TL, DR: there were no pirates.

[THREAD] Image ICYMI, here is a clip of what Trump said about the Battle of Gettysburg at his recent Pennsylvania rally

Apr 14 9 tweets 3 min read
Are we on the brink of a larger Middle East War?

The risk increased in the past day, but is still low.

[SHORT THREAD] Many of the points raised in 👇 🧵 from October still apply: larger wars happen because states want to be drawn in.

Is that still the case?
Apr 13 20 tweets 6 min read
"International law is fake law."

"The only real law is domestic law."

Both statements are wrong. In some sense, the opposite might be true.

[THREAD] Image As I wrote recently in @WPReview, international law is flawed. But flawed shouldn't be confused with pointless.

worldpoliticsreview.com/war-gaza-inter…
Apr 6 26 tweets 8 min read
To truly understand the current value of NATO, you need to think about a world without NATO.

Such "counterfactual thinking" lies at the heart of policy analysis...and IR scholarship.

[THREAD] Image This 🧵 builds on my latest @WPReview piece. I argued that NATO is more valuable than ever to its members. But how do we actually know that?

worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-ukraine-r…
Mar 30 12 tweets 4 min read
NATO turns 75 years old this coming week.

To mark the event, here are 7 (and a half) historical facts about NATO.

[THREAD] Image These facts draw from the #NATO7for70 series of 🧵 I wrote during NATO's 70th anniversary (along with *half* a new one). So this is essentially a 🧵 of🧵s.
Mar 23 31 tweets 8 min read
Will nations ever give up "the bomb"? Will we ever live in a nuclear free world?

Probably not (but emphasis on "probably")

[THREAD] Image There are essentially four categories of answers to the question of "will we live in a nuclear free world?":

1) yes, for encouraging reasons.

2) yes, for discouraging reasons.

3) no, for crazy reasons.

4) no, for sensible reasons.

Let's unpack each.
Mar 16 20 tweets 6 min read
Making Predictions.

Are International Relations scholars any good at it?

Yes, but it's important to know the limits.

[THREAD] Image Forecasting and offering projections on future events has a long tradition in international relations. After all, if we are offering explanations of WHAT IS HAPPENING, that should offer insights into WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
oxfordbibliographies.com/display/docume…
Mar 9 20 tweets 5 min read
When studying war, what is a "Level of Analysis" and why should you care?

[THREAD] Image In the latest @WarOnTheRocks Russia Contingency podcast, @KofmanMichael and I discuss the purpose and role of IR theory, specifically thinking about the War in Ukraine.

warontherocks.com/episode/therus…
Mar 2 26 tweets 7 min read
Will humanity ever convert all its "swords" to "plowshares"?

That is THE question international relations seeks to answer.

[THREAD] Image The phrase "swords to plowshares" draws from the passage in the Book of Isaiah:

"They shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more."
Feb 24 24 tweets 6 min read
Peace is always positive, right?

Not necessarily. That's what Johan Galtung taught us.

[THREAD] Image Galtung was truly a pioneer of the study of "peace research" (i.e. the field of social science that uses modern methodological tools to understand the causes and consequences of violent conflict).

amazon.com/Johan-Galtung-…
Feb 17 18 tweets 5 min read
Over the course of its War in Ukraine, Russia has:

- incurred massive loses of material and manpower.
- failed to achieve strategic objectives.
- endured economic hardship.

Despite all of that, it could still "win". Why?

[THREAD] Image This 🧵 is particularly relevant given reports about Russian gains at Avdiivka.

reuters.com/world/europe/u…
Feb 10 17 tweets 4 min read
In light of the Carlson-Putin interview, let's (once again) review the reason Russia invaded Ukraine.

Hint: it wasn't about NATO

[THREAD] Image Others will provide the full fact-check of Putin's remarks during the interview,...

spectator.co.uk/article/tucker…
Feb 3 24 tweets 5 min read
Why would a state WANT to be a global hegemon?

[THREAD] Image I’ve had a series of recent 🧵 s that explored the idea of hegemony.

One looked at defining hegemony, as used by International relations scholars.

Jan 27 23 tweets 7 min read
Does the ICJ's ruling in "South Africa v. Israel" matter?

Yes, but it's important to know how and why.

[THREAD] Image As many are now aware, the International Court of Justice made an initial ruling yesterday in South Africa's case against Israel.