Paul Poast Profile picture
Tweeting to teach. International Relations and Foreign Policy. @UChicago Prof. @ChicagoCouncil Fellow. @WPReview Columnist.
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Sep 7 19 tweets 5 min read
Which of these two men is most responsible for World War II?

Short answer: not Churchill

Long answer: [THREAD]
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To be clear, in this thread I am dealing with the onset of the war in Europe. The War in Asia was just as important and obviously connected to Europe. But that is for another thread. For now, I do highly recommend Paine's book "The Wars for Asia"

amazon.com/Wars-Asia-1911…
Aug 17 14 tweets 4 min read
Solving the "Europe Problem" has vexed US foreign policy since the beginning.

[THREAD] Image As I wrote last week, a key trait of US "grand strategy" since the founding of the Republic was "Go West" either by expanding US territory west or seeking to maintain trade with China.

Aug 10 20 tweets 5 min read
Since the founding of the republic, US foreign policy has been about one thing:

Go west (and don't let Europe get in the way).

[THREAD] Image I'll write more about "don't let Europe get in the way" in another 🧵. This one will focus on the "Go west" part (which will also touch on the Europe part).
Jun 15 19 tweets 6 min read
When you hear "Liberal International Order", just think "the G-7, for better and for worse"

[THREAD] Image While some scholars and policy makers like to speak of the "Liberal International Order" as the collection of post-World War II international institutions....
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Jun 8 24 tweets 5 min read
Are the "opportunity costs" of arming Ukraine too high?

Short answer: no

Long answer: compared to what?

[THREAD] For those not aware, I am asking this question because of a new International Affairs piece that makes the argument "yes, they are too high"

academic.oup.com/ia/advance-art…
Jun 1 14 tweets 4 min read
In international politics, population is destiny.

[THREAD] Image As I wrote in my latest for @WPReview, shifting patterns in population growth will inevitably influence international politics.
worldpoliticsreview.com/global-demogra…
May 18 17 tweets 5 min read
What's wrong with the word "genocide"?

[THREAD] To be clear, I think we need to talk more about genocide in my discipline, International Relations.

May 11 22 tweets 7 min read
Should everyone have nuclear weapons?

That's the core question in the Waltz-Sagan debate

[THREAD] Image In my latest @WPReview thread, I wrote about another debate: whether nuclear weapons actually deter.
worldpoliticsreview.com/nuclear-weapon…
May 4 22 tweets 7 min read
Does the United States have a responsibility to protect the civilians of Gaza?

[THREAD] Image In my latest @WPReview column, I wrote of the downfall of "Responsibility to Protect" or R2P.

worldpoliticsreview.com/us-foreign-pol…
Apr 21 19 tweets 5 min read
The House passed a defense supplement for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

Ukraine aid was the most controversial portion of the supplement and might cost Speaker Johnson his leadership position.

Why did he do it?

[THREAD] Image As is being reported, Johnson stated “To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall....This is not a game, this is not a joke.”
cnn.com/2024/04/21/pol…
Apr 20 30 tweets 7 min read
Let's do this.

A close reading of Donald Trump's recent description of the Battle of Gettysburg.

TL, DR: there were no pirates.

[THREAD] Image ICYMI, here is a clip of what Trump said about the Battle of Gettysburg at his recent Pennsylvania rally

Apr 14 9 tweets 3 min read
Are we on the brink of a larger Middle East War?

The risk increased in the past day, but is still low.

[SHORT THREAD] Many of the points raised in 👇 🧵 from October still apply: larger wars happen because states want to be drawn in.

Is that still the case?
Apr 13 20 tweets 6 min read
"International law is fake law."

"The only real law is domestic law."

Both statements are wrong. In some sense, the opposite might be true.

[THREAD] Image As I wrote recently in @WPReview, international law is flawed. But flawed shouldn't be confused with pointless.

worldpoliticsreview.com/war-gaza-inter…
Apr 6 26 tweets 8 min read
To truly understand the current value of NATO, you need to think about a world without NATO.

Such "counterfactual thinking" lies at the heart of policy analysis...and IR scholarship.

[THREAD] Image This 🧵 builds on my latest @WPReview piece. I argued that NATO is more valuable than ever to its members. But how do we actually know that?

worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-ukraine-r…
Mar 30 12 tweets 4 min read
NATO turns 75 years old this coming week.

To mark the event, here are 7 (and a half) historical facts about NATO.

[THREAD] Image These facts draw from the #NATO7for70 series of 🧵 I wrote during NATO's 70th anniversary (along with *half* a new one). So this is essentially a 🧵 of🧵s.
Mar 23 31 tweets 8 min read
Will nations ever give up "the bomb"? Will we ever live in a nuclear free world?

Probably not (but emphasis on "probably")

[THREAD] Image There are essentially four categories of answers to the question of "will we live in a nuclear free world?":

1) yes, for encouraging reasons.

2) yes, for discouraging reasons.

3) no, for crazy reasons.

4) no, for sensible reasons.

Let's unpack each.
Mar 16 20 tweets 6 min read
Making Predictions.

Are International Relations scholars any good at it?

Yes, but it's important to know the limits.

[THREAD] Image Forecasting and offering projections on future events has a long tradition in international relations. After all, if we are offering explanations of WHAT IS HAPPENING, that should offer insights into WHAT WILL HAPPEN.
oxfordbibliographies.com/display/docume…
Mar 9 20 tweets 5 min read
When studying war, what is a "Level of Analysis" and why should you care?

[THREAD] Image In the latest @WarOnTheRocks Russia Contingency podcast, @KofmanMichael and I discuss the purpose and role of IR theory, specifically thinking about the War in Ukraine.

warontherocks.com/episode/therus…
Mar 2 26 tweets 7 min read
Will humanity ever convert all its "swords" to "plowshares"?

That is THE question international relations seeks to answer.

[THREAD] Image The phrase "swords to plowshares" draws from the passage in the Book of Isaiah:

"They shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more."
Feb 24 24 tweets 6 min read
Peace is always positive, right?

Not necessarily. That's what Johan Galtung taught us.

[THREAD] Image Galtung was truly a pioneer of the study of "peace research" (i.e. the field of social science that uses modern methodological tools to understand the causes and consequences of violent conflict).

amazon.com/Johan-Galtung-…
Feb 17 18 tweets 5 min read
Over the course of its War in Ukraine, Russia has:

- incurred massive loses of material and manpower.
- failed to achieve strategic objectives.
- endured economic hardship.

Despite all of that, it could still "win". Why?

[THREAD] Image This 🧵 is particularly relevant given reports about Russian gains at Avdiivka.

reuters.com/world/europe/u…