Thread by @therealarod1984

2/25 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave

* Hospitalizations approaching traditional C19 floors, interesting to see if they crash below that
* Jan 28 was fatality peak, CFR still below flu

1/n

2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/24, Cases 7DMA falling through 4K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA below 5K and still collapsing
* Rapidly approaching traditional Covid floor of 2K cases and 3K hospitalization census

2/n

2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* ICU & Vent peaks are basically over
* Both nearing traditional floors of 1K & 550
* Will see if they continue to fall through those and approach new lows seen briefly last spring

3/n

2/25 TX Severe - Pg 4

* Jan 21-Feb 3 = fatality projections to dates already 80-95% reported
* Feb 4 on = TBD
* Fatality peak was Jan 28 with 99% certainty. Final peak number still TBD but below 275
* Going to be significantly less fatalities in this wave than previous

4/n
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2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n

2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is through Jan 28 & very accurate
* CFR is projected through fatality peak now

6/n

2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ still running at 0.66% through fatality peak
* Will continue to slowly creep back up as Case number decline but how far up is TBD
* Just under 1.00% CFR is seasonal flu territory. Omicron has been < 1% since before Christmas

7/n

2/20 TX Severe Conclusion

2 more of these in the next 10 days to get January actuals for the Endemic Omicron wave.

With only nothing-burger Omicron B2 as the "next" variant & other political fiascos taking center stage, along with Mid-Terms, is Covid finally over? TBD!

8/end