Thread by @nickbuxton

For almost 20 years, the world's most powerful militaries (also some of the biggest carbon polluters) have been pushing a narrative that climate change will need a security response. Today's #IPCCReport shows the opposite is needed 🧵

The US, UK, Australia, EU and others argue that climate change will lead to increased conflicts and migration and instability that require military readiness. Unfortunately many have bought into this rhetoric but the IPCC shows this is not confirmed by the evidence

This rhetoric has helped fuel an ever more militarised and inhumane response to refugees. Border militarisation has been prioritised over providing climate finance to the poorest countries

Yet #WGII report states: "Violent conflict and, separately, migration patterns, in the near-term will be driven by socio-economic conditions and governance more than by climate change."

In other words, injustice and dictators are key causes of conflict and displacement

And what are the causes of injustice according to IPCC? "Patterns of intersecting socio-economic development, unsustainable ocean and land use, inequity, marginalization, historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, and governance"

Of course none of these underlying causes are resolved by military or border spending. Indeed military spending is one of the 'patterns of inequity', contributing to greenhouse gas emissions, diverting resources from mitigation, and often deployed to perpetuate the injustice.

And what does the IPCC suggest would better address displacement and conflict? Investing finance and political commitment towards fostering inclusive governance, long-term planning, peace-making, supporting displaced and vulnerable peoples.

This points to need for different response to climate crisis than that offered by national security planners. Redressing climate injustice that has made millions vulnerable, paying the climate debt the polluting countries owe, and supporting peacemakers rather than warmongers.

For more on all these issues, have a look at this primer on climate security that I wrote that was published by @TNInstitute tni.org/en/publication…