Thread by @therealarod1984

2/28 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

THREAD

* A short Omicron induced lull in January & early February is over
* President's Day brought travel back to Holiday season levels
* @Hold2LLC @pilotshive, others telling me they think the airline Mask Mandate goes away soon???

1/n

@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 2

Back to near 2 million passengers in the 7 Day moving average (7DMA), which we've only seen at 3 other times during C19: Summer 2021, Thanksgiving 2021, and Christmas 2021.

2 years ago, 7DMA was running a little north of 2.2 Million

2/n

@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 3

Traffic rapidly back up to near 90% of 2020 which has only been seen during Thanksgiving 2021. Omicron dropped the YoY to between 70-75%, but airline travel has become more and more resilient to Covid variants over the past 12 months.

3/n

@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 4

Will the end of the mask mandate be announced tomorrow? I'm not as confident as some others, I'd says its 50/50 at best. I hope I'm wrong.

But even if dropped, it will be a challenge for the airlines to restore traffic to 100% and beyond. Why?

4/n

@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 5

* Pilot shortage - a long term problem looms with FAA requirements, pilot retirement age, & costs to become a pilot
* Staff shortage - The 2020-2021 mass layoff/furlough problem + general labor market challenges makes ramping up staff very difficult

@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers - Conclusion

Other problems include the ability of both Boeing and Airbus to deliver new aircraft, and a general ceiling on the number of jets that can be un-parked & staffed.

I hope we hear the Mask Mandate is ending. We'll track the numbers here!

6/end