Thread by @gmleunghku

Quick nowcast and forecast on situation awareness of HK Covid 5th wave…1/n

Since beginning of 5th wave, there have been about 1.7 (0.32 – 2.86) million people already infected as of February 28, 2022…2/n

We expect this wave to peak in the coming week or so, at 182,738 (36,794 – 263,300) new infections per day or 35,121 (9,985 – 46,091) newly reported cases per day…3/n

The lagged daily number of deaths is projected to peak around 156 (46 – 184) by mid-March and the cumulative number of deaths by the end of April could be as high as 4,645 (3,143 – 5,568)…4/n

Estimates of death assume: 1) our health system surge capacity continues to be overwhelmed, 2) there is no dramatic and rapid improvement in vax coverage amongst institutionalised elderly, 3) no immediate and widespread novel antivirals (e.g. Paxlovid or molnupiravir) use…5/n

Spread will speed up if PHSMs were to be relaxed before April. If virus is not locally eliminated by late April, ongoing PHSMs with at least 35% reduction in social mixing would be needed to prevent case numbers from resurging albeit unlikely at currently observed levels…6/n

Therefore, if compulsory universal PCR testing were to be implemented under “dynamic zero-covid policy”, it should be deployed mid- to late-April when case numbers will already be at very low levels in order to truly achieve elimination, or “zero covid”…7/n

Doing so earlier, especially when case numbers will still be too high to properly and appropriately isolate and care for, paying particular attention to population mental and emotional wellbeing in HK’s unique context, would not be recommended…8/n

Full report here med.hku.hk/en/news/press/…