Another update on HK’s Omicron BA.2 (“5th”) wave nowcast and forecast (we’ve made some important methodological improvements - see med.hku.hk/en/news/press/… for full details)…1/n
5th wave has peaked on March 4. Estimated no of people infected by March 7 = 1.8M (1.0-2.7M). No of daily infections to fall below 1,000 by end Apr and to below 100 by mid May…2/n
Mar 1, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Quick nowcast and forecast on situation awareness of HK Covid 5th wave…1/n
Since beginning of 5th wave, there have been about 1.7 (0.32 – 2.86) million people already infected as of February 28, 2022…2/n
Mar 1, 2022 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
About 600 (and counting) nursing homes have so far recorded test positive cases, amongst residents and/or staff.
HK has almost no natural immunity. We estimated ~1% had prior infection. We skipped over alpha and delta, unlike many other places around the world. We are experiencing Omicron BA.2 - the most transmissible VOC to date (R0 >3x ancestral strain) with +++ immune escape potential.
“...infectiousness only started to rise substantially 5-6 days before symptom onset, around the average time of infection assuming an incubation period of about 6 days...”
