Thread by @althecat

Global model forecasts show rains are arriving in East Africa now. Forecasts show heavier rains arriving earlier than last year, with significant rains forecast for the next fortnight in the HoA + Uganda & Western Tanzania.

See 2021 rain thread below:

The forecast above is from 19th March as is this satellite animation which shows convection increasing over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the majority of flow in the Nile river.

This animation from today shows a very similar picture. Both show a period of 24 hours of cloud activity over the horn.

Here are today's 10 day rain forecasts from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA models. They also show rain on the Somalia coastline in the north and south, albeit not a significant quantity yet.

The KMA model goes out to 12 days and so shows a little more rainfall. Like last year (attached tweet from 6th April) the heaviest rain is forecast for south western Ethiopia.

These two forecasts show 10 days of rainfall over Kenya, Uganda and NW Tanzania.

In answer to this question, it is probably too early to be certain of anything, but this is certainly a positive indication that this years rains may be as strong as last years, and therefore help this years 3rd filling of the GERD.

Finally these two SPEI Drought monitor (spei.csic.es/map/maps.html#…) graphs suggest that in drought terms the HoA starts in a better starting position in relation to soil moisture than it did last year.

... Bonus satellite animation. A wider view of the last 24 hours shows a very long band of rain, which looks like it originates in the West African Monsoon, crossing the Arabian Peninsula over the last 24 hours.