Thread by @EnemyInAState

1/UK, BA2, Covid, London: Admissions Doubled Since Freedom Day, Patients on vents 14% increase, 28% increase in cases in just one week—'there had never been a riskier time to travel' says Tim Spector—Zoe app estimates London has highest number of new cases.

2/
London is starting to surge again—something I can confirm from all the messages I'm getting and also the data which is showing alarming rises on all key metrics.

3/
R in London is estimated to be above 1—meaning we are now in an exponential growth phase.

4/

Zoe App is estimating that London has the highest number of new cases—official NHS numbers show a 28% increase on last week.

5/

Cases have more than doubled since Freedom day 2 disaster:

6/

The daily admissions have doubled since Freedom Day.

7/

There has been a 22% increase in those in hospital for Covid over the same period:

8/

There has been a 14% increase in vents in the same period of time:

9/

Deaths have yet to increase in the capital, but no doubt will along with the rise in cases, admissions etc.

10/

Tim Spector from Zoe App warned:

“there had never been a riskier time to travel”

'With his data suggesting one in 19 people in the UK have covid symptoms'

As reported by the Evening Standard

11/
Adding:

“After two years of the pandemic, Covid-19 is affecting more people than ever before.'

And:

“The Government’s refusal to recognise the wide array of symptoms and to drop isolation advice and testing is likely driving the incredible number of cases we see today.'

12/

'Many people are no longer isolating when they have symptoms, either because they feel they don’t have to anymore or because they or their employers still don’t recognise symptoms like runny nose or sore throat as Covid.”

Said Spector.

13/ So London is currently exploding again—just a month after Freedom Day disaster, admissions have doubled since then, but are half the Jan peak, however, at this rate another doubling will lead to the same as Jan peak by mid April.

14/ The admissions we are looking at today are the results of what happened 1-2 weeks ago, when cases were much lower, therefore we expect a sharp rise coming in the next few weeks with more and more needing hospital and dying.

15/

Interestingly once again, London's mobility remains far below baseline according to the Google tracker:

16/

Massive decreases in public transport use, and many still work from home as is indicated here: if London was to return to pre-pandemic activity levels for even a few weeks would result in utter catastrophe:

17/

The current surge is bad enough, but if 'normality' was to truly be returned to the results would be MUCH worse.

18/

I currently know of 2 just infected, who live with 3-4 others so obviously basically around 10-11 who've got it now in London and counting.